Numbers Behind The Numbers: Pavel Francouz and why this contract is a BARGAIN

NEWS: Two-year, $4 milllion contract extension for Pavel Francouz

VIEWS: Pretty good deal by Joe locking Frankie up. Two million per over the next 2 seasons. It has solidified our stables in the net for the time being and squashed those horrid Carey Price rumors.

Frankie has been more than a capable backup so far this season and has been rewarded accordingly. With a 14-5-3 record, he has been more than handy as a backup to Philipp Grubauer this season.

Czeching That Save Percentage

Franny currently ranks sixth in qualified goaltenders (20 games or more) with a sturdy save percentage of .923. Funnily enough, if you take a look back at his years in the Kontinental and the Czech Extraliga you’ll find he’s always been the gold standard in this category. As a starter in professional leagues, he’s been with HC Litvinov and more recently in the KHL with Traktor Chelyabinsk. With Traktor, he won back-to-back save percentage awards in 2017 and 2018 with .953 and .946 percentages. In both instances, he was graced with superior talent in leagues that don’t exactly promote equality. So it does obscure his numbers somewhat. But the continual dominance at junior and professional levels means that something must be working for him.

Analytics, And All That Jazz

When looking at some stats such as Goals Above Replacement or “GAR”, our boy Frankie is indeed surrounded by good company. GAR is a compiled stat that shows how valuable an individual player is in terms of on-ice play, relative to a replacement level player. For example, Antione Bibeau is a solid AHL and third goalie but is in no means of backup or starting quality. Hence his replacement value. Stats such as quality of opposition, shot quality and even and short-handed defense numbers are the most important considerations in this category. Currently, Pavel ranks 36th of 77 goalies qualified with a GAR score of six. That is six goals saved as opposed to a replacement player. Look at the canvas this way: there are only 31 starters in the league and he’s 36th. He has starters Fleury, Quick, Holtby and Sergei “Shoooooow me the money” Bobrovsky covered. That is just as much a reflection on their poor form as it has been our boys’ good form.

One phase of play that Frankie shows solidarity is “Quality Starts.” A quality start is any start made that results in a game with above the rolling league average save percentage. Over 20 starts so far he is at 10 quality starts (.500%), a far cry from the upper echelon of the NHL’s best but also better than his buddy Grubauer, who is at .472% over 36 starts. They could both improve in this department, but the signs of consistency are there for a guy only 24 games into his career.

Did We Get Good Value?

Considering we have seen guys like Anders Nilsson, Chad Johnson and Eddie Lack get more in the open market in recent years and give nothing in terms of anything to their teams, it is a good deal. Free agency rarely bares value, especially in net. Locking up a guy who can provide borderline starting quality for a team-friendly term is a win-win. We have a combined current .919 save percentage locked up for 5.3 million for two more seasons now. Way to go Joe! You can but six Bobrovskys for that.

Dale Tallon are you listening?