Avalanche Free Agency
Avalanche Free Agency: Andre Burakovsky
With the Avalanche season officially drawn to a close, it’s time to turn our attention to what is sure to be an interesting offseason. According to CapFriendly, the 2020-21 Avs squad has 14 members currently signed on next season, leaving some decisions for GM Joe Sakic to make on some of his uncontracted players. With an estimated cap hit of roughly $59.1 million for next season’s Avalanche, and with the NHL salary capped at $81.5 million, Sakic and Co. have roughly $22.4 million to work with…with plenty of work to do.
Colorado Hockey Now will work its way down that list of a few of the unsigned Avalanche and make a case for and against re-signing the prospective free agents, providing stats, analytical insights and opinions on the matter ahead of the opening of the NHL’s free agency period beginning on Oct. 9.
Depth scoring is placed at a premium in this league, and rightfully so. Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic has done everything and some to try and rebuild and re-tool the organization’s depth, whether it’s for his 23-man active roster or the farm depth down in Loveland with the Colorado Eagles. He’s had some decent success at doing so. Most recently, Corey Pronmon of The Athletic ranked the Avalanche’s organizational depth in the top-10 for the second straight year.
One of those important depth moves Sakic made last offseason was acquiring Andre Burakovsky from the Washington Capitals. That was a big move on Sakic’s part. The Avs GM doesn’t often trade high draft picks, for the aforementioned reason of wanting to build up his system’s depth. So by moving his second and third-round picks in this year’s upcoming draft to acquire Burakovsky last summer, and then signing him to a one-year, $3.25M prove-it deal, it was a win-now move by Sakic and the Avalanche front office. It also showed some confidence that he likes where his organization’s depth is at by his willingness to depart from two high draft picks.
Obviously, the win-now will have to be win-next-season, but the question becomes whether or not the pending RFA-to-be Burakovsky will be a part of those plans?
The Good
There’s a lot to like about Andre Burakovsky. He’s young (25), he’s fast and skilled, and he’s a guy that fits the mold of what Sakic is trying to — and has — built over the last three seasons.
Burakovsky put up career numbers this past season, too. His 20 goals, 25 assists and 45 points (in 58 games) were all career-bests. As was his 11 power-play points. He finished third in goals and points on the Avs during the regular season. He also led the team with six game-winning goals during the regular season.
During the postseason, Burakovsky was producing at over a point-per-night pace to the tune of more career-highs. His seven goals, 10 assists, 17 points and plus-7 during the playoffs were the best of his six-year career. He finished tied for second on the team in goals scored and fourth in points. Burakovsky actually led the team in shot percentage during the regular season (19.42%).
Now, a lot of those numbers can be attributed to him skating on a line with Nathan MacKinnon for parts of the regular season and playoffs. But his speed matched well with the likes of MacKinnon on the top line, and he’s got a lethal shot to compliment MacKinnon’s as well. It could be the start of a new three-headed monster in Denver, with Burakovsky on the left wing with MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. I wouldn’t be opposed to it.
On the analytics side of things, Burakovsky is also pretty elite. His 57.43% CorsiFor at all strengths puts him fifth on the team among forwards.
Bonus fact: Burakovsky has never had a negative plus-minus during the regular season in his career. Eat your heart out, Ryan Graves.
The Bad
There’s really not much too much to quibble over when it comes to Burakovsky. The only real downfall I found for him on the analytics side of things was that he was fourth on the team in giveaways at 5-on-5. But that’s really pretty much it.
He was a little inconsistent in the early parts of the Avs’ second-round series with Dallas. He was demoted to the third line, though head coach Jared Bednar suggested that it wasn’t a performance-based demotion, but I’m not so convinced. After those slight struggles, however, he earned some more time on the top line and tallied four goals and nine points in the final five games of the series.
Probably the only real concern with re-signing the 25-year-old winger might just be how much of a pay raise he’s going to command.
The Bottom Line
Burakovsky provided great value for the Avalanche all season, especially with just $3.25 million coming off the books. Thing is, he’ll certainly command a pretty solid pay raise this offseason. Given his putting up career numbers, skating on the top line, finishing among the top five in a few team categories, he’ll become a more expensive option for Colorado.
But like I said earlier, depth scoring is at a premium in the NHL. Given Burakovsky’s youth, speed and skill, he fits the bill of being a top-six forward for the Avalanche….and top-six forwards don’t come cheap these days. I think he gets paid this fall.
Projected Contract: 3 years, $5.25 million AAV
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