Avalanche Free Agency
Avalanche Free Agency: Vlad Namestnikov
With the Avalanche season officially drawn to a close, it’s time to turn our attention to what is sure to be an interesting offseason. According to CapFriendly, the 2020-21 Avs squad has 14 members currently signed on next season, leaving some decisions for GM Joe Sakic to make on some of his uncontracted players. With an estimated cap hit of roughly $59.1 million for next season’s Avalanche, and with the NHL salary capped at $81.5 million, Sakic and Co. have roughly $22.4 million to work with…with plenty of work to do.
Colorado Hockey Now will work its way down that list of a few of the unsigned Avalanche and make a case for and against re-signing the prospective free agents, providing stats, analytical insights and opinions on the matter ahead of the opening of the NHL’s free agency period beginning on Oct. 9.
A former first-round pick of the now-Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning, Vladislav Namestnikov has struggled to find the right fit with an NHL club, and really, any sort of justification of being a former first-rounder. This season alone, the 27-year-old center/wing played for three different NHL clubs in various capacities.
Now in his seventh year in the league, Namestnikov has failed to score more than 20 goals or over 44 points.
When the Avalanche acquired Namestnikov in February, he came out firing in his first few games in Denver, scoring four goals and six points in his first nine games in the Burgundy and Blue. Not bad. His postseason wasn’t terrible either, where he tallied another four goals and five points in 12 games. He was nearly the hero in Game 7 against the Dallas Stars, where he scored two goals, including what would’ve been the game-winner with under four minutes to go in the game.
In total, Namestnikov recorded eight goals and 11 points in 21 games with the Avalanche.
The Good
With such a small sample size, it’s hard to fairly or accurately judge Namestnikov.
With the numbers he was putting up in his first 21 games with the Avalanche, he would’ve been on pace to shatter his career-best numbers. He was converting on something like over a third of his shots on goal…which are certainly not sustainable numbers, but impressive nonetheless.
Namestnikov is a decent option on the Avs second power-play unit. In terms of CorsiFor, he was among the top-three on the team. He was over 50 percent during his first nine games as an Avalanche before the season pause.
I also liked his ability to hang on to pucks along the boards. He was one of the better Avs forwards at playing the half-wall and keeping the puck on his stick and keeping it down low. Strong possession numbers like that are key on a team like the Avalanche, and it’s one of the big reasons why guys like Namestnikov and Val Nichushkin have jobs.
The Bad
Namestnikov’s analytics numbers are below average. He was among the bottom-five in CorsiFor (at 5-on-5) on his team with both the Senators and Avalanche. His ShotsFor metrics also suggest he spends more time in the defensive zone than the offensive zone, which really isn’t a surprise for a bottom-six guy. It comes with the territory.
Financially speaking, he’s coming off a $4 million per year contract and may be seeking a raise. He’s coming off his best season since the first half of the 2017-18 campaign while he was still with the Lightning. Unless he’s willing to come down from $4M per year, I think the Avs have cheaper, younger options already in the Avalanche system.
The Bottom Line
I get the sense Martin Kaut could be a replacement for Namestnikov next season. They play a very similar role, but in the similarly small sample size we got from Kaut last season, he plays with more pace and tenacity than I feel Namestnikov does. Is Kaut ready to be a full-timer, however, remains the question. I think the Avs liked what they saw from him but might opt to have him split some time between the AHL (if the AHL is even an option next season) and the NHL. Kaut is still a raw prospect and he’s very young. No need to rush him.
That said, maybe they could sign Namestnikov to a one-year deal to sub in and out on that third line/ play the 13th forward role. I don’t really see that happening, however, and Namestnikov could like find a more full-time role elsewhere. That said, I think the Avalanche move on without offering Namestnikov a contract. Let him test the market, and if there are no takers, maybe Sakic circles back on him.
Projected Contract: No contract, or, one-year, $3.5 million
Read more on Colorado Avalanche free agency predictions here:
