Round 1 Preview: Avalanche vs Stars — The Storylines Are Endless

It’s felt for months like the Avalanche and Dallas Stars were on a collision course for a meeting in the first round.

Both teams were winners at the trade deadline — arguably the two biggest winners. They’re both in their Stanley Cup window, and one is going to look back at 2024-25 in disappointment.

On Saturday night, the Central Division rivals will finally drop the puck for Game 1 of their series with a handful of storylines to keep an eye on.

Donate To The CHN Playoff Travel Fund: VENMO or PAYPAL

Will Gabriel Landeskog make his return after three years on the shelf? And if so, how much of a factor will he be?

Without Miro Heiskanen, can Dallas stop the Avs’ suddenly deep offense?

How will Mikko Rantanen fare against his former club less than three months after suddenly being sent away?

The two teams met in 2024 and the Stars came out on top. Will a shot at retribution give the Avalanche added motivation?

Two Western Conference powerhouse teams. But only one winner. Let’s see how they match up

READ MORE: Flynn’s Take: What Makes Avs Head Coach Jared Bednar Successful

Offense

Avalanche’s Projected Lineup

Artturi Lehkonen — Nathan MacKinnon — Martin Necas
Jonathan Drouin — Brock Nelson — Valeri Nichushkin
Kiviranta/Landeskog — Charlie Coyle — Ross Colton
Parker Kelly — Jack Drury — Logan O’Connor

Stars Projected Lineup

Mikael Granlund — Roope Hintz — Mikko Rantanen
Mason Marchment — Matt Duchene — Tyler Seguin
Jamie Benn — Wyatt Johnston — Evgenii Dadonov
Oskar Back — Sam Steel — Mavrik Bourque

*Both lineups are predictions

The Stars have one of the deepest forward groups in the NHL. Last year, they used their depth to overcome a star-studded and top-heavy Avs roster. Rantanen, along with Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon, were the biggest Avalanche threats. But things are different this time around.

The Avs still have superstars. MacKinnon is still playing MVP-level hockey, and Makar is coming off a 30-goal campaign. But the third piece, Rantanen, was shipped out of town for Martin Necas, Jack Drury, and the extra cap space and assets were used to deepen Colorado’s center pool.

Dallas has Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, and Sam Steel down the middle. Their third-line center is coming off a 33-goal season. He’s that good.

But now the Avs can counter it. MacKinnon is the best of the bunch on either side. And the three centers playing behind him — Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, and Drury — were all added to the roster after the calendar turned to 2025.

On the wing, the Stars suffered a massive blow with an injury in Game 82 to Jason Robertson. On the other side, the Avalanche might be welcoming back their captain as early as Game 1.

Valeri Nichushkin is in a good place, Jonathan Drouin is healthy, and Artturi Lehkonen enters the postseason in a bit of a scoring slump in what has otherwise been a successful season. It’s a deep forward group all around.

But the biggest question lies with Necas.

Rantanen always produced in the postseason. Even when he wasn’t playing his best, he still managed to find the scoresheet. Can Necas provide some of that magic? It’s well documented that the playoffs are a different game from the regular season. Necas and MacKinnon had instant chemistry in the regular season. But if that doesn’t carry over to the postseason, and if Rantanen can provide that added offensive spark on the other side, it could even things out quite a bit.

Even without Robertson, the Stars still boast a deep lineup. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are both still dangerous, as is deadline acquisition Mikael Granlund.

It’s hard to say which team will have the upper hand. On paper, the Stars look great. But missing Robertson might put the Avs ahead.

READ MORE: More Than Teammates: Inside the Friendship of Valeri Nichushkin and Mackenzie Blackwood (+)

Defense

Avalanche’s Projected Lineup

Devon Toews — Cale Makar
Samuel Girard — Josh Manson
Ryan Lindgren — Sam Malinski/Erik Johnson

Stars Projected Lineup

Esa Lindell — Cody Ceci
Thomas Harley — Ilya Lyubushkin
Lian Bischell — Matt Dumba

*Both lineups are predictions

Injuries often shift who has the upper hand in a series. But that could change on a dime. Not to bring back memories, but we all remember the 2020 bubble when it seemed like Colorado’s top players were dropping each game.

It’s hard to speculate what will happen. But what we do know is, Heiskanen is not an option for Dallas. At least not to start. And given the fact that he plays nearly 27 minutes per night in the playoffs, it’s going to be a massive loss for Pete DeBoer’s defense.

Dallas’ underlying numbers with Heiskanen compared to without are night and day. He’s that good. But it’s not the only difference from a year ago.

Last year, DeBoer stapled Chris Tanev to MacKinnon for six games. Tanev is one of the best shutdown defensemen in the NHL, but he’s no longer an issue after departing for Toronto last July. Instead, the Stars’ right side consists of Cody Ceci, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Matt Dumba.

The top pair that Dallas had up against Colorado’s top-heavy lineup is no longer an option. And that’ll hurt.

It’s worth noting that Thomas Harley has taken a massive step this season and could have a coming-out party in a series like this. He’ll probably go head-to-head with the Avs’ top guys and see a lot of action opposite Makar, too. Could he rise to the occasion? It’s possible. But it would be a lot more probable if Heiskanen were healthy enough to pitch in with some of those tough matchups.

I do want to mention that Esa Lindell is also a threat for the Stars on the left side. He’ll carry the brunt of those matchups with Harley. But he’s still not Heiskanen.

On the Avs’ side, health might also play a part in how the blueline looks. The top pair is healthy. Makar and his running mate, Devon Toews, will continue to play nearly half the game. But if Ryan Lindgren and Josh Manson struggle to stay in the lineup, it’ll give the Stars the upper hand in depth.

Basically, an injury to one or both of those guys could make the defense matchup look a lot like last year. One team is top heavy, the other has depth.

Avs coach Jared Bednar said on Friday that both Manson and Lindgren are good to go. Let’s hope they’re able to stay healthy.

READ MORE: Avalanche Excited to Have Gabe Landeskog Back

Goaltending

Even with all the changes the Avalanche made up front, the goaltending duo they have this year might still be the best upgrade of them all.

Backup goalie Scott Wedgewood was on the Stars’ bench a year ago. He was the backup to Jake Oettinger but didn’t make a postseason appearance.

The starter for the Avs, Mackenzie Blackwood, is perhaps the biggest X-factor of the series. Blackwood has long been an up-and-coming netminder in the league, but couldn’t quite solidify a long-term starter’s role in New Jersey or San Jose consistently.

Nearly five months into his Avalanche tenure, the 28-year-old is set to make his postseason debut and is locked in for five more years following this season.

Oettinger has the experience, Blackwood has the potential. If Colorado’s guy doesn’t live up to that expectation, it’ll quickly put a damper on this entire playoff run.

Blackwood is 22-12-3 with a .913 save percentage since being acquired in December. His numbers took a dip with the Avs’ late-season struggle but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s been one of the better goalies in the NHL since then.

It’s hard to give the Avs the upper hand in the goaltending department. But like last year, nobody needs Colorado’s goalie to be better than Oettinger. He could be. But as long as Blackwood plays average, or slightly above average, he could come out of this series with four wins.

Final Thoughts

On paper, the Avs have the better roster. But a lineup on paper doesn’t win you games.

Whether it’s Blackwood’s play, Landeskog’s return, health on the blueline, or Nichushkin remaining focused on hockey, all of these are factors that could help the Avs breeze through this series.

But the beauty of hockey is its unpredictability.

Even without Robertson and Heiskanen. Even with a weaker right side on the blueline, even with a 0-5-2 skid heading into the postseason, the Stars are still one of the best teams in the league. They’re not riding a two-year Western Conference Final streak by accident.

They have a great coach, incredible depth, and veterans who know what it takes to win. It’s not a series the Avs are going to take lightly. But it’s still one they can, and should, win.

It all starts Saturday night.