Avalanche Mailbag: Defense Upgrades, Necas Extension, Offloading Salary, & More

What are the odds that Miles Wood is attached to a trade deal before or during the draft?

Aarif’s Response

I’d say it’s pretty low odds this weekend, but those odds can go up after the first few days of free agency. This is strictly speculation on my behalf, though.

The contracts handed out on July 1 are going to shock a lot of people. There will be a new standard for player salaries that we all need to get used to.

So basically, I feel like once teams see what depth players sign for, the ones that miss out would be more inclined to circle back to Colorado and ask for Wood, even if it’s for free — for future considerations. The general thought is, if Wood was a UFA on Tuesday, would a team sign him to a four-year deal worth $10 million? Perhaps. The new salaries handed out might make that more of a reality and easier to stomach for an acquiring team.

Question From Ryan

On a scale of 1-to-10 what do you think the likelihood of Necas signing a contract extension before the season is? If so, what do you think the AAV would come in at?

Aarif’s Response

I don’t know how to put a number on this one. I’ve said before, and I still believe that the front office would be crazy to let the season start without clarity on a Necas contract. If it’s not signed, then it needs to at least be close.

I just don’t have a good feeling about it in general, and haven’t since the Avs lost Game 7. If you’re trading Mikko Rantanen to clear cap space and not be top-heavy, then you should’ve gotten a player back with cost certainty. If, for example, Necas had the Tage Thompson contract (five more years at $7.14 million), then I’d understand their thought process a lot more.

Necas wants to get paid, and he’s going to want a massive raise off the $6.5 million he currently makes. I shudder at the thought of him making even $9.5 million and only saving roughly $3 million off what you could’ve probably signed Rantanen for.

All that’s to say, if Necas loves it here enough to sign long-term now, he’ll do it. But I think he wants to bet on himself if he’s not getting a massive payday this summer. Which is why I still believe they should trade him. And they should acquire a player who has term on his deal.

For all we know, they might already have a reasonable extension prepared with Necas and ready to sign in July. We’ll find out soon, I guess.

Question From Jeffrey Anderson

Aarif, do you see Nick Hague or K’Andre Miller helping Avs second pairing? If so, do you think that the Avs could be successful including Girard or Josh Manson in a 1-for-1 trade with Vegas or New York for either player? Do you see any realistic scenario where they could land Vladislav Gavrikov or Ivan Provorov to vastly improve the D?

Aarif’s Response

I’d much rather prefer Miller, but I’m well aware he would require a bigger contract than Hague. I don’t think Vegas wants money back for Hague, anyway. But I do think you can entice the Rangers with one of Girard or Manson (plus more) for Miller.

I’ve gone back and forth on whether they should go the trade route (Byram or Miller, etc.) or free agency (Gavrikov or Provorov) but if there truly is a market for Girard (even if it’s just draft picks), I’d love to see the Avs get Provorov, for example, and then use their trade chips like Girard to restock the cupboards ahead of the trade deadline. Provorov might get a bigger payday, but you don’t have to trade for him. You keep those assets and can use them for other stuff.

Question From Jeremy

On the record as saying the Avs center depth 1-4 is as good as any team outside the Panthers, maybe. Assuming Sam Bennett re-signs there.

But if they do decide to move Charlie Coyle, I’m sure the Leafs would be interested. Thoughts on Coyle for Brendan Carlo straight up? He checks a lot of boxes for the Avs. He’s signed for two more years at a very, very modest $3.4 million. He’s big, tough to play against with plenty of postseason experience & is a legit top-four D.

Aarif’s Response

With John Tavares officially locked up, I wonder if the Leafs would even want Coyle. I think their top choice might be Brad Marchand, but they do want to shore up their center depth. Carlo would be an interesting acquisition and one that makes sense. I just hate the thought of losing Coyle unless you have a clear replacement for him.

The best part about Coyle is, he’s only got one year remaining on his contract. I’m of the belief that it’s too early to upgrade Jack Drury to 3C, but that thought could change next summer after seeing a full season of Drury here. Coyle gives you time to see what you really have with Drury before he’s due a raise, and perhaps even an upgrade to the third line.

It’s somewhat comparable to having Scott Wedgewood for another year before rushing Ilya Nabokov into a full-time NHL role. If you’re trading Coyle, you need another one-year stop gap. And one that can also help you win in that one year.

Question From Balon