Avalanche Mailbag 1.0: Fixing The Avalanche’s Center Depth

Do you think the Avalanche should pursue a 3C on the trade market to reunite the Kelly — Drury — LOC line? That fourth line reminded me a lot of the Cogliano — Helm — LOC line during the Stanley Cup run.

Aarif’s Response

At some point, they’ll likely have to address the center depth. Zakhar Bardakov has done an admirable job filling in on the fourth line, but this team has shown time and again over the past few seasons that it lacks the patience to develop mid-level talent like him.

I don’t necessarily blame them. When you’re in win now mode, you’re not giving younger and lesser experienced forwards the same ice-time and as long a leash as you would during your rebuilding years. It’s not to say that Bardakov isn’t going to cut it as an NHL regular — I’m not even saying his time in Colorado is coming to an end.

I just think that he might have to be one of the extras during the playoff run where he’ll get a chance to be around a team hoping to make a long playoff run. That itself would do a lot for his development.

So does that mean making a run at a 3C? It might. But it ultimately depends on the market. If the market is leaning more towards a traditional fourth-line center being available, then perhaps that’s the target for this roster. And in that scenario, Jack Drury, who has done a good job at 3C, would remain higher in the lineup.

I keep wondering about David Kampf as a low-priced option if his contract with Toronto is actually terminated. The Avs could probably get him for around $1 million to be your stable 4C, and it wouldn’t cost you anything in terms of assets.

But if you can get your hands on a better third-line center, which is the ideal preference, it allows you to reunite that great fourth line we saw in last year’s playoffs. As I mentioned, the market will ultimately determine this.

What if traditional third-line centers are not available? What if there are limited quantities, and the price tag is too high? It makes more sense to pursue a 4C in that case, allowing you to avoid draining what little assets this team has left on a 3C.

If they do get a 3C, they can go one of two routes. They can opt for a traditional approach and bring in a guy who makes sense for that position. Think J.T. Compher in 2022. That was a player who wasn’t fit to be a permanent 2C, although he did an admirable job filling in when Nazem Kadri was hurt. But he also had way too much talent for the fourth line.

The other option is to follow the approach taken last year with Charlie Coyle. As in, you get a 3C that you would have no issue playing at 2C if Brock Nelson struggles. My personal best choice for this would be Ryan O’Reilly, who makes $4.5 million.

To make it work, you’d need to clear space, whether that means Ross Colton or Samuel Girard. I don’t think it would happen because the Predators will ask for a lot for him, and it’s unlikely that Colorado would have the best offer.

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Any chance the Avs look at bringing Kadri back? Not sure there is room with Nelson at 2C and a no-trade clause, but I would love to see it.

Aarif’s Response

I’m so sorry for spending as much time as I did thinking about this scenario, while very well understanding that it’s highly unlikely. Still, I’ll give it a shot.

If Nelson absolutely cannot figure out the offensive part of his game and it continues to hinder the second line’s production, then maybe the Avs should consider this option. Figuring out a way to make it work would require quite a lot. But it’s doable, under particular circumstances.

For starters, it would mean you’re going into the postseason riding Nathan MacKinnon, Kadri, Nelson, and Drury as your four centers. But you’re also very much aware that this would not continue for longer than one season. You just won’t be able to afford it unless Calgary is eating $2 million or more of Kadri’s contract, which I highly doubt.

You would have to find a way to pay more for him than other teams. Colton likely needs to be involved for salary purposes. Perhaps Sam Malinski, too. Your first round pick in 2027 would also be in play, and you have two second-round picks in that draft as well.

I’m not saying all of these assets are required, but you do have the pieces to make it work. Colton has a 12-team no-trade list, so I’m unsure if Calgary is a spot he’d agree to go to. But if you can’t trade Samuel Girard, you’d need to move Colton somewhere to make the money work.

Anyway, after one playoff run of an insanely deep center group, you’d have to work with Nelson to find him a home he prefers over the summer. Centermen are and always will be in demand. Even if Nelson ends the season with 30-40 points, someone will need him and will take his full salary, even if it means getting limited assets back in return.

Nelson has a full no-trade clause through the 2026-27 season, so he’d ultimately be the one choosing his landing spot.

Once you trade him, you go into next season with MacKinnon, Kadri, Drury (on a new contract), and someone like Bardakov at 4C.

As much as I want this to happen, I just don’t know if the Avs will make the offer to Calgary. But there’s this little thought in the corner of my brain that knows Chris MacFarland will leave no stone unturned to get this core another Stanley Cup. If the ghost of Nazem Kadri is going to continue to haunt this team and the only way to fix the 2C role is to bring Kadri back, then he’ll try to find a way. Will he be successful? It’s less than a 50% chance. But he’ll try.

Again, I write all of this knowing it’s a very unlikely scenario. And Nelson getting going offensively will quickly shut this all down. But if you’re 45 games into the season and Nelson has like 19 points? Then it may become a more realistic option.

There’s a reason why this portion of the mailbag is only two questions. It’s because there are numerous moving parts.

The Avs are basically in a situation this year where they probably need one more center unless they’re okay with Drury and Kelly playing down the middle in the bottom six. If they do get a center, I’ve just given you a thousand words on different scenarios for them to acquire a 3C, a 4C, or, in this case, a 2C.

It will be interesting to see which route they take, if any.