A deeper dive: Yep, it’s still Makar over Hughes

As much as I’d like to throw Adam Fox in the mix here, this analysis is purely about the Cale Makar/Quinn Hughes debate, which overlord Dater started the other day and promptly started a meltdown in Canuckland. Consider this piece Phase 2 of the debate, where I drill down even deeper into the numbers. First, my objective:

– Who had the better season?

– Who deserves the Calder?

In all that is fair, BOTH had stellar seasons and both camps have valid points for their respective studs to be crowned the league’s best rookie. But in a world where everything and everyone has a title, gotta pick one to win it.

My votes will cast as such on each category:

1 = Clear Victory

.75 = Victory

.5 = Draw

.25 = Valor in Defeat

Makar vs. Hughes: The Ice Isn’t Tilted

There is no middle ground here, no fence to be sat upon. I love Quinn Hughes as a player. He’s legit. But as an Avs fan, my heart has said Makar for Calder all season. My eye test says Makar. The stats say Makar. People can argue age, roster strengths and strength of competition all they want, but they are all out of a player’s control. They don’t cause injuries, they don’t control the roster, heck, they can’t even pinpoint what their ceiling is at a young age. So how can you judge a player off what is not in their control? You can’t. Simple as that. All you can judge is what evidence is left behind, statistics.

Statistics, My Cheese And Vegemite

Numbers And Neons (Graphs)

Makar comes out ahead. Not by a huge margin, but it all adds up. Over a bigger scale, goal wise, that’s five and a half more goals at even strength over 82 games at the same rate. Kinda adds up. When it comes to total assists, we are talking a shade over five more again over an 82 game-span. That’s nearer to 11 more points just at even strength over a season. That’s more points than Patrick White has ever had (should have taken Perron, Vancouver….)

You can say what you will about Makar having better players around him, does that include them being injured? Just check man-games lost in the top-six.

Makar 1, Hughes 0

Shooting Acumen

When looking at the individual shooting rate (above) and team shot rate and percentage of chances for and against when both kids are on the Ice (below), Cale reigns supreme.

As you can see, there is a fair difference in all the bars. Not only from a rate perspective but also from a percentage standpoint. Even though they had basically identical Corsi scores at five-on-five, the underlying factor here is that the deviation in shots created and shots made leans towards a propensity in superior shot control for the Avs with Makar on the ice. Considering the Injuries and shuffling in Colorado this season, that leads to what I believe to be a lower Corsi for Cale, relative to the shot control. The dip in shot percentage against the chances made, it leans towards a tad poorer shot quality and/or bad puck luck around Cale. Either way, when it comes to shooting, Makar gets the edge as the more dangerous, constant threat.

Makar 2, Hughes 0

Goal Scoring And Defending The Net

See the pattern? Makar yet again. This one is a bit more of a landslide. Makar was on the ice for 9.5 percent fewer goals five-on-five than Hughes. Sure Cale missed games, so it seems only reasonable that he had fewer goals against yeah? Duh. However, Cale also had a better goals against per hour rate of 1.9 as opposed to Hughes clipping at 2.3. So… the gap wasn’t really going to close; rather deviate more so, by a little.

Now let’s look at percentages of scoring in and defending danger areas: low, medium and high.

Makar and the Avs were able to cash in and dominate the medium to low danger chances, whilst leaving some goals on the table with a rather low high danger percentage. What does all this mean? The Avalanche and Makar were for one; more prolific in defending these areas and two; they were able to turn that defense into translatable offense and score from such areas they defended well.

Overall, with Makar on ice, Colorado had a 13.4-percent better share of goals from the three key danger areas than Vancouver did with Hughes. Not all that is Hughes’ fault though. There is certain puck luck that needs to occur and decent shot quality to get goals in dirty areas, the concern however is, those medium danger goals allowed as opposed to scored. Clear the puck!!! The Canucks play a very sideways, off-the-glass-and-out style of exit defense, which can trip them up.

Makar 3, Hughes 0

I’ve heard arguments about the quality of competition, aka “Hughes had it tougher”. It’s possible, absolutely. But quality of competition isn’t as easy to gauge, even as an eye test, let alone statistically. There are a lot of gray areas on this topic, but we can go there ‘Nucks fans.

Strength Of Competition

According to Woodmoney, Hughes dominated Makar in terms of team goals scored against elite competition. 21 team goals for Hughes, 13 for Cale and both players on ice for 12 goals against, the differential advantage (nine) goes to Quinn. Makar did hold a better Corsi (slightly) and both leveled out at 4.6 percent, relative to their teammates, Corsi-wise for the category. Defensively against elite competition, they weren’t all that different. Vancouver and Hughes just had a better time of it on offense.

When we get to middle or average competition faced, this is where things get funky. Makar had a huge leap to 26 team goals when on ice, as opposed to 19 for Hughes. The key difference here, just 11 goals against for Cale, 27 against for Quinn. OOOOOOOOF!

Does that really mean that Hughes is better defensively against elite competition and worse against average competition? maybe? Does it tell us that Cale is a constant in his own end and that no matter what competition he’s up against, he’s just coooool and calm? maybe?

Strength of competition is very much subjective, very much questioned, and in my opinion, a little bit flawed. There isn’t a whole lot of data that supports this and it doesn’t take in shift lengths, situations and a player’s development over the course of an 82-game season. But hey, this is an argument that’s been made in regard to these two all season, so it seems appropriate that it is covered. I believe the hole is close to being halved due to imprecise data.

Makar 3.5,  Hughes 0.5

Transition And Puck Security

Transition stats aren’t always readily available or accurate, but Corey at the ShutDownLine does an awesome job tracking these stats. The transportation of the puck up-ice efficiently and safely is pivotal in creating offense from your own zone. Both Makar and Hughes are high percentile skaters in this category and it almost seems unfair to pick a winner, but under the surface, there are a few meaningful stats that MIGHT separate the two.

Hughes had a better rate of defensive zone exits per hour and also completed more exits. No doubt that when it came to finding outlets and escaping the zone, Hughes had the upper hand in volume. In terms of carrying the puck into the offensive zone, Makar took the choccies. Cale entered at nearly 36-percent more per hour than Hughes in terms of offensive zone entries. If a defenseman can penetrate the zone in an effective manner and create offense, win win. Cale completed a tick over one high danger slot pass per hour, more than double that of Quinn. What i love about Quinn is his room for improvement.

As we can see below, Hughes turned the puck over at a greater rate. If he can tidy that up, we’ll see more exits and an even better percentage, nudging into elite levels. It should also see his entry rates rise. Quinn doesn’t have the strength Cale has, and I think that this is relevant to these stats too. Cale has a special ability to avoid and skate through checks by simply being stronger in his core and on his skates, whereas Hughes is more adaptive in open-ice by use of deft edgework.

Makar 4.25, Hughes .75

Replacement Value

Arguably the most-used stat to evaluate a player’s worth is replacement value. Evaluating a player’s worth against what would be classed as a replacement-level player.  A replacement level is the value of a player that is freely available to any team. At the NHL level, a replacement-level player is somewhere between a fourth-line skater/third pair defenseman and a scratch, roughly. These values are applied to each skater, and their deployment, to determine what value above replacement they hold.

We’ll finish with a bang.

GAR = Goals Above Replacement

WAR = Wins Above Replacement

SPAR = Standing Points Above Replacement

All roads lead to Cale. That is the Tweet. No matter what you say or argue, the eye test and the data match. The planets align. Both are great, Cale is just that little bit better.

Cale was able to be more effective and display more worth to both his team and add the league despite playing 11 leas games. Special, special player.

Total Score: Makar 5.25, Hughes .75

Thanks to @Evolving-hockey.com, @naturalstattrick.com and Corey Snzajder for the data.