Evan Rawal
While Ryan Johansen is likely the most important addition the Colorado Avalanche made this summer, Ross Colton might be the one who ends up making the biggest impact.
With the loss of J.T. Compher to free agency, Jared Bednar will be looking for a new Swiss army knife up front who he can move around the lineup. There’s a very good chance Colton ends up being that guy.
I did things a little differently with this film room. I watched regular season and playoff games over the last two seasons, simply because I wanted to see Colton at both wing and center. In total, he played wing in 5 of them, and center in the other 4. That versatility might come in handy over the next few years.
In case you missed the previous three installments on Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Johansen, and Miles Wood, I’ll go through the film and analyze what I see. If this is the type of content you’re interested in, please consider subscribing to CHN+. With the code “evan10”, you can still get $10 off a year sub.
Without further ado, let’s get to it.
He’s An Animal Out There
Joe Sakic made it clear after the draft that the team wanted to get harder to play against.
Enter: Ross Colton.
Colton is not exactly a big guy. He’s listed at 6′, 194 pounds, but he plays the game much bigger than that. Any chance he has to finish a check, he does so. Sure, the Avalanche have guys like Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin who get in on the forecheck and pressure, but neither of those guys play overly physical.
Colton is a little different. He’s going to replace a lot of that nastiness that the team is missing without Gabriel Landeskog or even Nazem Kadri. He’s aggressive all over the ice, and tough to handle on the forecheck for opposing teams. The most physical forward on the Avalanche last year was Logan O’Connor. For context, Colton averaged twice as many hits as him over the course of 60 minutes.
He Likes To Shoot…And What A Shot He Has
Just like Miles Wood, Ross Colton likes to shoot, and shoot a lot. He finished last year with 8.3 shots-per-60 at even strength, and 15.11 shot attempts-per-60. That would place him near the top of the Avalanche in terms of shot generation, right below Mikko Rantanen. Not bad.
The difference between Wood and Colton is that the former Lightning forward is a much better finisher. Colton has an incredible release, and can get shots off very quickly in tight situations.
The question is – how good of a finisher is Colton? His shooting percentage has dropped each year he’s been in the NHL, from 19.6%, to 13.8%, to last years 10.46%. I doubt he’s a guy who finishes around 20% of his shots per year, but I would imagine the truth lies somewhere in between years 2 and 3. Either way, someone with that sort of finishing ability entering your lineup is a good thing.
You’ll Find Him Around The Net
The Avalanche boast an incredibly talented defense, and a lot of their offense runs through those guys and their point shots. In order for that to be successful, you need bodies in front of the net. That’s where Colton comes in to play.
He goes to the net and he plants himself there for deflections and rebounds. That leads to goals for his team, and sometimes, the opposing team taking penalties.
We talked about one of the issues with Johansen and Wood being how many penalties they take. Colton takes some penalties, but he draws quite a bit himself. Only Nathan MacKinnon drew more penalties on the Avalanche than Colton, so he’ll put his team on the powerplay by getting under the skin of the opposition.
The Full Ross Colton Experience
I thought this shift was a good indication of what you can expect from Colton. Drives to the net for a decent shot, then crashes into the boards. He picks himself right back up, and heads to the net again. After some battling behind the net, he chases down Guentzel and pressures him, forcing a giveaway. And just for good measure, he finishes his check.
That creates even more zone time, and he’s right back to the front of the net again. He’s going to do a lot of dirty work for this team, and that’s why he’ll see a lot of ice time.
A Little More Creativity Than I Expected
One of the questions I’m frequently asked is whether or not Colton could actually end up a suitable 2C. I still have my doubts. After watching him a lot, he does kind of blindly throw the puck to areas, leading to turnovers. I’m not sure he has the vision or creativity to be a 2C.
That being said, he did have a bit more creativity than I thought, as I always found him to be much more of a shooter than passer. And creativity doesn’t always come in the form of direct passes. The last clip, with a perfect bounce pass off the boards, leads to a great chance that he just can’t corral.
So yes, I still have doubts about him being a 2C, but there’s a bit more creativity than I expected.
Ross Colton, The Center
The Avalanche have made it pretty clear – they see Colton as a center. Finding film of him playing center exclusively last season was difficult. Sure, he would take his fair share of face-offs, but that Tampa team was loaded with guys who could play down the middle, so it usually pushed Colton to the wing. And he’s very good on the wing and on the boards, so I wanted to see just how he looked down the middle.
To do that, I had to go back to the 2021-22 season. After the Lightning acquired Nick Paul at the trade deadline, Colton moved to the wing, but he played a lot of center before Paul was picked up.
And yes, he was pretty good there. The move to center might take away a little bit of his physicality, as there might be a little less board work, but it also showcased his speed through the middle of the ice a lot. He also happens to be a very good face-off guy. Not as good as Johansen, but his numbers have improved every year, up to 56% last season.
He still uses his body down low in the defensive zone to separate players from the puck, but can be a little aggressive, which hurts him at times.
Aggressiveness Hurts Him Occasionally
My biggest concern with him at center will be handling the defensive responsibilities. If you look at the defensive metrics for him, they aren’t great. At times, his aggressiveness gets the best of him, as he’ll want to finish a check as opposed to just using the right angle to slow down the puck carrier. Even in one of the previous videos, you can see him try to physically take out Toews when he puck isn’t there, and he gets beat. The only thing that saves him is a bad pass from the Blackhawks defender.
The last clip is a strange angle he takes as the F3 on the forecheck, and the Blue Jackets get an easy 3-on-2 the other way when the Lightning would have had even numbers back.
Those defensive responsibilities will be something I’ll be keeping an eye on once the season starts.
3C? He’ll Be More Than That
It’s safe to pencil Colton into that 3C spot to start the year, but how long he actually lasts there? That remains to be seen, and I don’t mean that in a negative way.
The top six for the Avalanche currently has a few question marks. Can Jonathan Drouin do enough to hold down a spot? Is Ryan Johansen still capable of being a 2C? Those guys will have rope to start the year, but if they struggle, changes will need to be made. On top of those question marks, injuries will occur. Drouin hasn’t played close to a full season in years, and Johansen has missed plenty of time the last four seasons. Someone will need to move up, and Colton seems like the likely candidate to do that.
The past few years, Compher has been the guy that Bednar has turned to when he needed someone to step into a top six role. For the next few years, I anticipate Colton is going to be that guy. Bednar will be very tempted to move him into the top six, simply because of how much effort he plays with. We’ve seen MacKinnon have success in recent years with guys who can do a lot of the dirty work for him along the boards, and Colton is someone I could definitely see fitting on his line. He had spot duty with guys like Stamkos and Kucherov in the past, so it’s not like he hasn’t done it before.
If he does find himself in the top six, he might be a better fit on the wing, but I’d be interested in seeing how he could handle the 2C role. I wouldn’t bet on him excelling in that spot, but he’s a guy whose exceeded every expectation set for him in his career, so I guess I shouldn’t put it past him doing fine there. Keep in mind, Drouin has played a lot of center in his career, so there is some ability to move those two around.
I really think this move is a home run, but there is still some risk involved. In Tampa, Colton was pretty sheltered. Maybe not so much in terms of where he started his shifts, but more so in how much he actually played. That was a very deep team up front, which meant Colton was pushed down the lineup. He’s never averaged more than 12:48 per-game in a season. In a handful of the games I watched, he played less than 10 minutes.
The Avalanche are banking on him playing well in an increased role, because I certainly expect him to play more than the 12:21 a game he averaged last year. Heck, the guy he is essentially swapping spots with, Alex Newhook, played almost 14 minutes a game. He’ll need to show he can consistently handle a bigger role against some greater competition. Do I think he can do it? Absolutely, but it’s not a slam dunk. We saw the Avalanche target a player stuck in a similar role in Lehkonen, and look how that turned out.
Colton played plenty of PP2 minutes in Tampa, but didn’t touch the ice on the penalty kill. I have a feeling that’s going to change with the Avalanche, and I’m interested to see how he handles that. That’s one thing that Compher did that Colton hasn’t shown (or been given the opportunity to show) at the NHL level.
One thing I know for sure – fans will love this guy. Without Landeskog, the team really hasn’t had an abrasive forward in the top nine. O’Connor can be a real pain to play against for the opposition, but he’s not always someone who gets under the skin of the opposing team. Colton is going to be that guy. Having skill on top of that doesn’t hurt either.
This is the pickup I’m most excited to see come training camp, and the one I see making the biggest impact moving forward.