Scott MacDonald
With the Avalanche season officially drawn to a close, it’s time to turn our attention to what is sure to be an interesting offseason. According to CapFriendly, the 2020-21 Avs squad has 14 members currently signed on next season, leaving some decisions for GM Joe Sakic to make on some of his uncontracted players. With an estimated cap hit of roughly $59.1 million for next season’s Avalanche, and with the NHL salary capped at $81.5 million, Sakic and Co. have roughly $22.4 million to work with…with plenty of work to do.
Colorado Hockey Now will work its way down that list of a few of the unsigned Avalanche and make a case for and against re-signing the prospective free agents, providing stats, analytical insights and opinions on the matter ahead of the opening of the NHL’s free agency period beginning on Oct. 9.
What to do about Tyson Jost? That is the question, and it’s one that GM Joe Sakic is likely asking himself at this very moment.
Since drafting the once-upon-a-time BCHL and CJHL MVP with the 10th-overall pick in 2016, Jost has become one of the most polarizing and debate-inducing forwards in the Avalanche organization. And now, with his entry-level contract set to expire this offseason, making him a restricted free agent, those debates and back-and-forths have once more thrust themselves into the forefronts of the minds of armchair GM’s and Avs faithful.
With a yearly cap hit just shy of $886,000, and coming off his three-year ELC, Jost will certainly command a raise. That’s just how it works. Now, how big of a raise or if he gets re-signed remains the question.
The Pros
What Jost does best is get in passing lanes and disrupt chances in the defensive zone. He’s quick on his feet in his own zone and uses his legs to forecheck to some effect and is decent at plugging up the center of the ice in the neutral zone. He can kill penalties, but spent an average of roughly 20 seconds of shorthanded time per game during the regular season. He was clearly trusted more on the Avs’ second power-play group and spent more time on the PP than the PK. Jost recorded five total points on the power play, good for seventh-most (tied) on the team.
And not only is Jost somewhat effective on special teams, he’s also pretty good at getting his team those special-teams opportunities. And perhaps that’s what he really does best. Jost was tied with Nazem Kadri for most penalties drawn during the regular season with 24.
Jost’s 12 giveaways were the fewest of any player on the team (who played more than 40 games). He laid the fifth-most hits among Avs forwards…while also getting hit the most with a healthy 123 body blows. His 54.57 percent CorsiFor at all strengths was also seventh-best among Colorado forwards.
Analytically speaking, Jost really isn’t all that bad, though his on-ice performance often left much to be desired throughout the year.
The Cons
On paper, Jost passes the eye test with pretty decent marks. Analytics, however, is really only a small fragment of an otherwise small-detail-oriented, intricate game. What a player does on the ice — the results — are really what earns the paycheck.
At the end of the day, Jost might just be a bit too soft. He’s fine at getting to the puck and pressuring the opponent when they have the puck, however, in the event he does get the rubber on his own stick, he’s far too easy to just rub off. This was exposed many times by Dallas, a very physical team, in the second round of the playoffs. While he’s not small by any means, per se, at 5-foot-11 and 187 pounds, he’s easily bullied by body checks and poor puck possession. He is, however, just 22-years-old and surely has more growing and filling out to do.
For most of the season, Jost was meant to operate as the team’s 13th forward. Lucky for him, the Avalanche couldn’t stay healthy this year, which earned Jost 67 games during the regular season and all but three games during the playoffs. Had the team been healthy, Jost certainly wouldn’t have played that many games.
Playing third and fourth-line minutes all season, Jost posted a career-low in goals (eight) and only mustered 23 points with a pretty healthy plus-11. Through the early parts of his career, the former first-rounder has tallied just 36 goals and 78 points in 238 games, including the postseason. Those are unacceptable numbers for anyone who was picked 10th overall.
And for a centerman, he’s not great at one of his main jobs in the game. That is, winning face-offs. It’s one of those small details he lacks. Jost was 33.33% on the face-off dot this season and is just 35.56% since his first full season in the league in 2017-18. Though, to be fair, he does play a lot of time on the wing (and doesn’t take many face-offs)…a coaching decision that probably stems from his poor positioning as a center, and likely his faults on the face-off dot, to boot. It’s usually never a positive sign when your coach moves you from your natural position.
Of the 2016 NHL draft class, Jost has played the sixth-most games, but is ranked 22nd in points-per-game and has played the fifth-fewest minutes of skaters that have played at least 70 games since 2017.
The Bottom Line
Jost has not been great for the Avalanche. However, given his status as a first-round selection and the number of games he’s played, Sakic can’t afford to — and won’t — just give him away for free.
I get the feeling the Avs are looking, and have looked, at trading Jost. In the end, I think they’ll re-sign him as a proven solid option as the 13th forward. He’ll either be moved sometime this offseason or by next season’s trade deadline. If not, he’ll be exposed — and likely taken — by the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft next summer.
Hey, I think a change of scenery could really do him some good…
Projected Contract: 2 years, $1.5 million AAV