Avalanche-Stars preview: Who has the edge?

The Avalanche just sent the desert dogs packing down highway #2; tails between their legs without a howl or hardly a whimper. Arizona simply couldn’t hang with Colorado’s stuff. It was the most dominant performance of the first round not only in the West but league-wide.

A brief look back, then a look ahead at Avs-Stars and how I see this thing playing out. Maybe.

Asserting Dominance

The Avalanche controlled 63 percent of the shot share, outscored Arizona by 14 goals and had just one player be on the wrong side of a 50 percent Corsi, JUST ONE. In contrast, the Coyotes had four, four on the right side of the share that is, 16 on the WRONG side. They got spanked, plain and simple.

Kuemper stood tall and stole a game and for the most part through the first three games played liked a top-five goalie (which he was this season) but then like the rest of the team went to water under pressure in games 4 and 5. For a team coached by one of the more hard-nosed, liked and respected guys behind the bench in Rick Tocchet, they simply quit on him. He asked for character and resilience after game 4 and Tocchet got nothing.

Coach Rick Tocchet on @ArizonaCoyotes in Game 4:

"This whole bubble thing … it's about who wants to stay. You can tell who wants to stay and who wants to go home. For this game, it looked like we wanted to go home. We'll see about the next game."

— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) August 18, 2020

Even though on paper they weren’t as deep and on the ice, they didn’t have the skills, all he asked was for some truculence and the Avalanche quashed that too. The Avs got through the series with a clean bill of health and Cale did great for those on Calder watch – zero goals against in all-situations and lead the team in even-strength Corsi at 71.7 percent. Even though some said he had some poor minutes, Cale was doing the exact opposite. Atta boy kid. So what’s next for the Avalanche?

Time To Shoot The Stars Down

Tonight it all starts again. Recent history leads me to believe that this bubble Avalanche team is much stronger than them, a 4-0 win in the round-robin series also suggests such. The Stars got the better of the Avalanche in the regular season series, sweeping Colorado. That was an age ago however and the Avalanche were without two top-20 guys on the first two of three occasions.

The way Dallas beat the Avalanche in the first two games was… ugly to say the least. The goals they scored were very lucky or handed to them on a platter to say the least.

Game 1:

Goal one was just some horrid goaltending to be honest. Hintz had one chance at net but shouldn’t have had a second as he put a tight-angle rebound home. The second goal was off the back of some bad neutral zone play a man-up, Hintz finding the five-hole.

Game 2:

First goal was off of the first shift of the game. Some pressure in the slot and the Avalanche failed to clear, Sammy G with a nice touch pass to the stick of Dickinson. Goal two was the result of a messy scramble. The puck just popped out lob style, beating Grubauer. Messy stuff. Note the time and shot count, the Avs crumbling early under shot pressure. No Mikko or Landy will cause such an effect. Goal three was the result another rebound and slow reflexes clearing the puck on the kill. The fourth was a redirect that went wide, Big Z with no awareness as to what was behind him as Perry snuck back door.

Every single goal was average. Either by luck or by skill error. Game three was pretty much in the same vein too as you can see below.

A Different Beast

The team isn’t what it was in November or January for that matter. The team that lost to these Stars wasn’t as refined and as well oiled as to what you see now. Grubauer has improved out of sight and as a unit defensively, there seem to be fewer lapses. Credit to the coaches and the players, no doubt that having the time off they were able to make such adjustments. Being healthy does you a lot of good too.

How To Beat ‘Em

Anton Khudobin is one of if not the best 1B goaltender in the league, but he’s no Ben Bishop. Bishop is a monster in terms of both stature and game-winning mentality. He was robbed of the Vezina last season and again, Dallas’ success mostly hinged on his performances this season. They need the St. Louis native known as ‘Big Ben” to be good-to-go.

Jake Oettinger is now the backup and as good as he projects to be, he’s young and hasn’t been tested at the NHL level. What do they do on a back-to-back Bishop-less? Hinge on Khudobin? They have questions that need answers.

Tyler Seguin is in a funk – three assists in eight games so far is not what the Stars need. Radulov hasn’t fared much better either, just three points in nine. Dallas has been super-reliant on Miro Heiskanen. The stud Finnish defenseman sits only behind Mackinnon for points in the playoffs thus far. He really has come to life, leading from the front. The other guys carrying the load? Old Pavs and Perry. Gurianov had a stellar performance last game, but I can’t see that being a regular occurrence.

So how do the Avs slow the hot-handed Miro down? He seems to be the guy pushing the Stars offense as their core vets just aren’t doing it. Shutting him down will suppress their offense in a big way.

Miro loves space. He is a terrific skater and takes any space and time given to him and attacks.

He will pick his gaps and attack. Pretty basic stuff. The Flames did play him well but very much in spurts. One thing I noticed was that the Dube/Lucic/Lindholm line pushed upon him at any chance they had.

Like any good puck-moving defender, the Avs have to take his space away. The same applies to Klingberg, but Miro still is in the phase where his in-game maturity isn’t fully there yet. He is prone to mistakes, especially under pressure. Sitting back against him just does not work. Get on him quick and force plays that aren’t necessarily there. Guys like Mackinnon, Calvert, Nieto and Donskoi have the foot speed to do so, I want to see them apply as much pressure as they can when given the chance.

Be Solid In Net And Around The Crease

The Stars like to play that dirty grinding game. The lower the shot count and the more congested the game is the better for them. They thrive on opportunistic play. Grubauer has to do a better job of rebound control against these guys than he previously has. Spilling pucks when you have the likes of Radulov, Perry and Benn in your grill isn’t ideal.

The defense also has to be more engaged in terms of man-on-man recognition during those scrambles. Too often against these guys they are able to sneak an extra number in around the goal mouth and punish the Avs. There comes a time when you need to just slow down and perhaps not look to be as aggressive. Be more accountable defensively and be patient, take your man and win the puck. Playing hot potato in the Avalanche defensive end isn’t conducive to victory, nor is lapsing in your own-end.

Series Prediction

Given the Avs are healthy and rested, the depth and high-end skill alone should be enough to see the boys through. Shutting down Miro in the transition game and being cleaner in the greasy areas will help in doing so. The Stars will have issues in net at some point and their key guys just aren’t buzzing whereas the Avs’ big boys are.

Avalanche win in six games. Khudobin will steal a game and this Dallas team is still good enough to grind a game out of their own.