Avalanche Free Agency: Val Nichushkin

With the Avalanche season officially drawn to a close, it’s time to turn our attention to what is sure to be an interesting offseason. According to CapFriendly, the 2020-21 Avs squad has 14 members currently signed on next season, leaving some decisions for GM Joe Sakic to make on some of his uncontracted players. With an estimated cap hit of roughly $59.1 million for next season’s Avalanche, and with the NHL salary capped at $81.5 million, Sakic and Co. have roughly $22.4 million to work with…with plenty of work to do.

Colorado Hockey Now will work its way down that list of a few of the unsigned Avalanche and make a case for and against re-signing the prospective free agents, providing stats, analytical insights and opinions on the matter ahead of the opening of the NHL’s free agency period beginning on Oct. 9.

One of the better feel-good stories in the NHL this past season was Val Nichushkin. A former 10th-overall selection (2013) by the Dallas Stars, Nichushkin was pegged as the next generation’s Evgeni Malkin with an Alex Ovechkin-caliber ceiling. NHL legend Jaromir Jagr even went as far as to say back in 2013 that Nichushkin “is going to be the best in the world.”

Fast forward seven years and Nichushkin certainly isn’t the best in the world, nor does he even come close to holding a candle to a Malkin or Ovechkin. Still, Avalanche GM Joe Sakic gave the 25-year-old winger a third chance at the NHL and things have so far worked out pretty well. Like a phoenix rising from the ashes.

Coming off a prove-yourself one-year, $850,000 contract, Nichushkin figures to get a bump into seven-figure territory this offseason.

The Good

What Nichushkin lacks in the goal-scoring department, he more than makes up for on the opposite side of the puck. His analytics numbers are off the charts.

Of Avalanche forwards that played over half the season, Nichushkin’s goals-against was tied for the lowest on the team at 22 against at all strengths. His goals-for percentage was also best on the team at a nice 69.86%. 

Nichushkin’s play helped make the Avalanche one of the surprise best defensive teams in the NHL. He was top five on the team in defensive zone starts at even strength, just below the Avs fourth-liners, proving head coach Jared Bednar’s trust in him as a reliable D-zone guy. 

Nichushkin was second among Avs forwards in hits and second on the team in hits-per-60-minutes. He was also tied for the third-most takeaways on the team.

Also, fun fact: At five-on-five, Nichushkin led the team in shot-attempt percentage (56%) and on-ice goals-for percentage (71.9%). He’s top-20 in the NHL in the former category and second in the league in the latter stat (over 40 games played). 

It’s important to know those are puck possession numbers and not individual stats. It doesn’t mean Nichushkin was scoring on 56% of his shots, rather, it means the team was converting on 56% of its shots while Nichushkin was on the ice. Same goes for the goals-for percentage. 

Translation: Nichushkin is perhaps the best puck possessor on the team, and he’s one of the best in the league. It means he’s good at keeping it out of his own zone, moving it up the ice and helping create offense with his defense. Further proof of this can be seen from his plus-26, which was second only to Ryan Graves on the team, and the fourth-best in the league among forwards.

The Bad

At his best, Val Nichushkin is a puck-possession monster. At this worst, he plays kind of lazy and uninspired. Take for example, this past playoff.

He didn’t have the best postseason for the Avalanche. He struggled against the Coyotes in the first round but got a little better as the series moved along. Coach Bednar said he was going through a “bit of a rut” and was lacking confidence at times in the playoffs. He got better as things went along in the second round against his former team and played with a little more passion. Still, inconsistency was an issue for Nichushkin at the most important time of the year, and at various times throughout the regular season. 

He went from a 71.9% goals-for percentage to just 47% in the playoffs, which was the second-worst on the team. His puck possession numbers were not nearly as good as they were in the regular season, and analytics aside, he appeared quite easy to push off the puck during the postseason, which is strange given his hulking 6-foot-4, 210-pound Russian machine of a frame. 

The Bottom Line

While he was projected to be one of the best offensive threats of the 2013 draft class, Nichushkin resurrected his career and transformed himself into one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL this past season. People are starting to notice too. Nichushkin finished eighth in Selke Trophy voting, which is given to the NHL’s best defensive forward during the regular season.

He’s an ideal bottom-six guy, who can also play up on the second line. Given his puck possession skills, you can put him with just about anyone and they’ll be sure to spend more time in the offensive zone, thanks in part to Nichushkin’s ability to keep the puck out of his own zone. Creating offense by defense, the Val Nichushkin way.

Val Nichushkin was a successful experiment for GM Joe Sakic. Now it’s time he segues out of the trial phase and into the full-time role. 

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $1.5 million AAV