Scott MacDonald
With the Avalanche season officially drawn to a close, it’s time to turn our attention to what is sure to be an interesting offseason. According to CapFriendly, the 2020-21 Avs squad has 14 members currently signed on next season, leaving some decisions for GM Joe Sakic to make on some of his uncontracted players. With an estimated cap hit of roughly $59.1 million for next season’s Avalanche, and with the NHL salary capped at $81.5 million, Sakic and Co. have roughly $22.4 million to work with…with plenty of work to do.
Colorado Hockey Now will work its way down that list of a few of the unsigned Avalanche and make a case for and against re-signing the prospective free agents, providing stats, analytical insights and opinions on the matter ahead of the opening of the NHL’s free agency period beginning on Oct. 9.
Matt Nieto has been through it all since he joined Colorado as a waiver claim in January of 2017, jumping on board the sinking ship that was the 2016-17 Avalanche. Since then, he was a key part in the incredible comeback story that was the following season and has been a steady, dependable component of the fourth line in his three-and-a-half years in Denver.
The soft-spoken Nieto is now facing free agent status for his third time in as many seasons with the Avalanche. He’s most recently coming off of a two-year, $3.95-million deal, in which he earned just shy of $2 million each season.
The Good
Nieto was a key member and contributor on the Avs fourth line. He found great chemistry with veterans Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Matt Calvert this season and did some good things on the Avalanche PK.
Nieto actually leads all Avalanche forwards in short-handed time on ice during the regular season at 164:42, ranking him 18th among all NHL forwards in that category. He’s also tied for 14th (among forwards) in the NHL in average short-handed time on ice per game (2:21 per game).
His below-average 43.71% CorsiFor is to be expected, especially given he gets more defensive-zone starts than any other Avs forward. You can’t ding him for that. If anything, that’s a positive — it means coach Bednar trusts him in critical situations in their own zone. Nieto’s best attribute is his puck-hounding ability, his forecheck and making life difficult for the opponent coming through the neutral zone, and it’s something he does pretty well, making him an ideal fourth-line option for any team.
The Bad
Since re-signing with Colorado in the summer of 2018, and coming off the heels of a career-year 15-goal campaign, Nieto has seen his offensive numbers diminish. Part of the reason for this, like many Avalanche forwards under head coach Jared Bednar, is Nieto has morphed more into a defense-first forward playing on the fourth line. Nieto’s role is more puck protection rather than pucks on net.
Nieto ranks near the top of the list of Avs on the ice for opponent goals (50), which, to be fair, is to be expected of a fourth-liner and penalty killer. He and his linemates are often forced into situations where a goal-against might be likely.
He also ranks last among Avalanche forwards in shots-for percentage (43.55 percent). This means, while he was on the ice, he and his line produced 422 shots while facing 547 shots against. But again, to be expected when you get more D-zone starts than anyone and you play a lot of 4-on-5 hockey. Again, his and his line’s role is not necessarily pucks on net, rather puck protection.
The Bottom Line
While his services have been more than appreciated in Denver, and he’s been pretty good at what he does, it does appear Nieto’s time in Colorado could be drawing to a close.
With Logan O’Connor quickly rising up the depth chart and proving his worth as a strong fourth-line option with arguably more skill, speed and upside than the aging Nieto, O’Connor figures to be his replacement on the fourth line starting next season and beyond.
O’Connor also just recently signed a two-year contract with the Avalanche, although the first year of his deal — next season — is a two-way, while the second year is a full NHL contract. It’s possible they try and ease O’Connor in next season and start him down in the minors and opt to re-sign Nieto to another cheaper one-year contract as a stable fourth-line/13th forward kind of guy. It’s possible, but either way, I see O’Connor fully taking over Nieto’s job at some point during next season.
On the business side of things, especially given the flat salary cap, O’Connor will certainly be a cheaper option for Sakic and the Avs, as well. OC’s deal is just $700k off the books, while Nieto’s potential deal figures to be near-triple that, if not at least double.
Contract Comparables:
Given his games played and statistically similarities, I’d compare a Nieto to someone like Tobias Reider from Calgary, who is coming off a $700k per year deal, or perhaps a Josh Leivo, who made $1.5 million with Vancouver last season.
Given Nieto’s statistical regression and that fact that his heir apparent, Logan O’Connor, is knocking at the door, I think Nieto either takes a bit of a paycut — say, one year at $1.5 million — or he simply doesn’t get offered. My gut feeling is I think the Avalanche do bring him back as a reliable 13th forward, but O’Connor takes over on the fourth line by the midpoint of the 2020-21 season.
Projected Contract: 1 year, $1.5 AAV
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