Why Philipp Grubauer should have a big year

No doubt, this has been a tough off-season for Philipp Grubauer.

Let’s think back to not too long ago, to August. He and the Avalanche are in Edmonton, playing in the dystopian Covid-19 playoffs of 2020. He and the Avs have just beaten the Arizona Coyotes in a first-round series, in five games, including wins in Games 4 and 5 that were by a combined 14-2 score. To that point in the playoffs, Grubauer held a saves percentage of .953 (85 shots faced, 81 saves).

Grubauer looked and sounded very confident. He spoke of learning more about himself and the team, of believing better things were still to come, provided all things stayed equal.

Then came the day of Aug. 22, Game 1 against the Dallas Stars at Rogers Place. I was there, sitting on top of section 214, which was converted into a press area (mostly just a long, skinny table perched just above the back row of seats at the top of the section).

The first period did not go well at all for him and the Avs. Grubauer allowed three goals on 10 shots and the Avs were down 3-1 after 20 minutes. OK, bad start, but come back out in the second period and win that and things would be OK.

Just 3:06 into the second period, Grubauer’s season was done. Trying to defend against a shot from the right side, Grubauer fell face forward onto the ice. A loud grimace could be heard, even up to where I sat. He stayed down a few minutes, then needed lots of help to get off the ice and into the locker room. We have not heard from or seen him since.

We still haven’t been told anything specific about the injury. Just “lower body.” Right now, we still don’t know if Grubauer would be good to go to play right now, if, say, the season started now. Basically, the Avs just aren’t really disclosing anything injury-related, because, well, we’re still in weird Covid-19 times and we still don’t know when a next season will start and most team personnel are on what might unofficially be termed its “We’re on vacation” or “Gone Fishin'” time of the off-season.

When Joe Sakic did some press not too long after the Avs were eliminated, he said all of the injured guys would have returned in a reasonable amount of time. So, that should include Grubauer too.

Over the summer, there was plenty of discussion about whether the Avs should go out and get another starting goalie, either via trade or free agency. I confess to hemming and hawing a bit as to what I thought they should do, but in some moments I thought, ‘Yeah, get a new guy in here.’

As we sit here, on Nov. 13, in the Year of Our Lord, 2020, I’m ready to say this: Not only do I think Grubauer should get another go as the No. 1 goalie on the team, I think he’s going to have a very big year – if/when that season happens.

Let’s be cynical here for a moment (which I know for me is rare) and give one reason why: He’s entering his contract year, his UFA year. Grubauer can be an unrestricted free agent after this season, so money might just be a very big motivator for him to have the best year of his career. I don’t have it all quantitatively broken down statistically, but I feel confident in saying I think guys tend to have some of the best years of their careers in that final contract year before they get their first crack at being a UFA.

A second reason why I think he’ll have a big year: the Avs will have an even better cast in front of him. The addition of Devon Toews was a great upgrade, in my opinion anyway, over Nikita Zadorov on the back end. Brandon Saad is now an Av and guys such as Ryan Graves and Cale Makar will keep learning and developing.

When he’s been able to stay healthy, Grubauer has been a very, very good goalie for good stretches for the Avs. I still remember his March of 2019, in which he posted a .955 saves percentage for the month and carried the Avs to the playoffs practically on his back.

He had kind of a pedestrian 2019-20 season, with a .916 SP and 18-12-4 record. But, again, injuries probably played a role in that. He battled through lower-body injuries at times, as we know.

So, of course, health is perhaps the biggest reason to really worry about Grubauer for the 2020-21 season. Groin/hip problems are common for goalies, but if they keep recurring, you worry. It’s the most important position on a hockey team (well, we could debate that, but let’s get real, it probably is) and if you’re always worried about that groin tearing again, it’s a problem.

Assuming the doctors have patched him up again and are confident he can be a regular player again with no more risk of getting hurt than anyone else, then I think 2021 is going to be the year of Grooby.