Scott MacDonald
I’ve been saying it all year. It was always going to be between Vegas and Colorado for tops in the West. And I truly do think it’ll either be the Golden Knights or Avs representing the left side of the bracket when it comes to the Stanley Cup Final.
But before we move on, honorable mention here to the Minnesota Wild, who, to give them credit, were a very good team in the regular season and nearly pulled off the upset against Vegas in a close opening round of the playoffs…except it wasn’t really particularly close, despite what the series record might indicate.
The Wild were largely outplayed in Game 1 but eked out an OT winner. Game 5 we can chalk up to a very rare off night for Marc-Andre Fleury, who allowed four goals on 14 shots. Minny was pretty good in Game 6; I’ll give them that.
It’s also worth noting that the Knights were sans-Max Pacioretty, their leading goal scorer, through almost the entire series. He made his presence felt in his Game-7 return, however, and he’ll surely make his presence felt all series long for the Avalanche.
Enough of Minnesota; they’re off to the golf course. The point here is, you’d be sorely mistaken to discount the Golden Knights based on their first-round performance against Minnesota.
Clearly, the Avs have what it takes to beat the Mighty Knights of Vegas. Despite many bumps in the road, Colorado still earned the NHL’s regular season crown. They did what most pundits and bookies thought they’d do, which is look—and play—like Stanley Cup favorites.
The most impressive part of that: They accomplished this feat despite losing the third-most man games to injury.
Again, clearly, the Avs have what it takes to beat Vegas.
But can they? Well that’s a whole ‘nother question.
Vegas is an elite hockey team, and I know I don’t have to tell you that. You know that already. As compared to the Avalanche over the years, it’s incredibly close.
All-time, Colorado has a 44-43 goal advantage in the all-time series. Vegas is 8-8-1 against the Avs in their 17 meetings over the years. Since the Golden Knights joined the NHL, they’ve won more games than the Avalanche has in that span—173 wins to 162. The Avs are fifth in goals scored since 2017-18; Vegas is right behind them at sixth. Historically speaking, it’s bound to be evenly matched.
This year alone, five of eight games have been decided by one goal.
What’s not particularly close—and the only reason (outside of unforeseen injuries *knock vigorously on wood*) the Golden Knights could best the Avalanche in the series is an area of the game that many fans would be quick to point out as the chink in the armor of the Avs.
Physical play. Hitting. Ground and pound, old-school, playoff hockey. Whatever you want to call it. It’s an area where Avalanche hasn’t been particularly strong over the years.
The Avs finished dead-last in the NHL in the hits department during the regular season, finishing with an average of right around 16 hits per 60 minutes.
The Golden Knights are decidedly much better, which has carried into the postseason. Vegas has so far averaged 45 hits per game (!) in the postseason.
The Avs? 16.5 per game. The fewest of the 16-team playoff pack.
I’m not saying hitting and overall physicality from a team is what differentiates a Cup contender from a second-round exit. Obviously not. But, at the same time, I’m not not saying that.
At the end of the day—in the playoffs especially—you need to be able to hold your own. The more physical team usually wins the series. The Avs clearly have the offense, but will that be enough to get them past the big bad Vegas Golden Knights? I guess we’ll find out in the next two weeks.
This is very likely a series that is bound to go the distance, all seven games. The seventh game in the second round has proven to be an issue for the Avs over the past couple of postseason appearances.
In general, the second round has proven to be a sore spot for Colorado over the years. The Avs haven’t made it out of Round 2 since 2002.
We know this Avs team has what it takes to beat Vegas…but can they?