Adrian Dater
Some of you know I do quite a bit of work as a hockey gambling tout, writing regulary for Bookies.com. I really enjoy it, and despite the DaterJinx, if one followed my daily game picks from last season, one would be about $8,000 richer. So, in that vein, let’s do some “futures odds” of who will start the season as the Colorado Avalanche second-line center. This assuming, as I now believe, the Avalanche won’t sign anyone on the free-agent market, as a de facto replacement for Nazem Kadri.
But first, a quick gambling lesson: What does it mean when a team is, say, +135 on the straight, win-or-lose odds? What does it mean when a team is, say, -170 on the same odds? Well, in betting parlance, everything about the odds is based on a “unit” of $100, or any divisible thereof. So, if a team is +135, that means they are the underdog and you would win a $135 profit on a $100 bet. A team at -170 is the favorite, so you have to bet $170 to win a profit of $100.
Get it? I never knew what any of the numbers meant, but it’s easy once you do a few bets. When it comes to “futures” bets (things that won’t be decided, either way, for a while) the payouts are usually bigger, because they involve more than just one win-or-lose scenario, on one game.
So, with that said, these are my futures odds as to who will be the next 2C on the Avalanche:
Mikko Rantanen (-110) – Why is the Moose the favorite? Well, the fact he played some center in the Stanley Cup playoffs, including the Final, gives him a leg up. Listen, I think Rantanen and the team are better served with him playing on the right wing, but maybe he’ll relish the chance to be in the pivot full-time? He obviously would give the Avalanche a better on the second line than anyone else on the roster, and Artturi Lehkonen as a top-line right wing is a pretty nice replacement.
Playing center requires more defensive responsibility though. Would that be asking too much, and would it take away from his offensive game? That would be the main worry. But he showed he’s capable of doing it, in the playoffs.
Alex Newhook (+250) – He’s a natural centerman and he had, all in all, a pretty nice rookie season. But would this be rushing his development a little much? I think he’s going to be on the Colorado Avalanche top six for years to come, and maybe this will be the first of such years.
But, yeah, I’d worry about him being in a little over his head for such a role so soon, especially defensively and on faceoffs. You want naturally gifted offensive players to solve that part of the equation as an NHLer, before drilling down more into the away-from-the-puck stuff. Otherwise, it can be easy to lose confidence and become a depth plugger before too long. It’ll be a big training camp for Newhook, regardless.
J.T. Compher (+500) – He’s gotten lots of chances as a top-six guy, with varying degrees of success. I think he’s best as a third-line guy to this point. But, hey, this is Compher’s last year on his deal and he can be UFA after that. It’s funny how lots of players have “career” years when that’s the case.
Ben Meyers (+2500) – This is the real long shot, the one in which you’d make a $2,500 profit on a successful $100 bet.
The kid from Minnesota showed well in his limited regular-season action, I thought, and it’s possible the kid just comes in and has a boffo training camp and starts the year as an experiment at 2C. Stranger things have happened. Especially, when you figure Compher and Darren Helm are probably locked in as third- and fourth-line centers already. Where does that leave Meyers? He’s got a chance at this anyway.
What are your thoughts, Avalanche/Colorado Hockey Now faithful?