Speculating On The Next AAV For Nathan MacKinnon (+)

Subscribers to this site know I’ve been hinting around about Nathan MacKinnon and his contract negotiations with the Avalanche on an extension. To set the table on the situation: MacKinnon has one year left on his contract, at a $6.3 million AAV. That might make him the biggest bargain in all of pro sports right now.

I wrote recently that the expectation is that MacKinnon will be the highest-paid player in the NHL when he puts pen to paper on his next deal, and I stand by that 1000% still. Some misinterpreted that, though, to mean MacKinnon will DEMAND that as part of his next deal. No.

It’s just the timing of the thing that MacKinnon almost certainly will be the guy with the highest AAV in the league by no later than next summer. Here’s why:

• Because MacKinnon and his agent, the high-powered Pat Brisson, will be basing their long-term contract extension expectations on the the fact that the NHL salary cap, as expressed publicly by deputy commissioner Bill Daly the other day, will go up significantly in a couple years.
• The highest-paid guys in the NHL right now have cap hits of $12.5 million. MacKinnon absolutely deserves a cap hit higher than that when you base things on the future, not at the present.
• So many people keep forgetting, too: Any extension MacKinnon signs before the end of his current deal will not take effect until the 2023-24 season.
• So, let’s just forget about this coming 2022-23 season. The Avalanche have Nathan MacKinnon for this coming season at a $6.3 million cap hit, and nothing can change that.
• After that, though, it’s time for MacKinnon to deservedly get paid. The Avalanche got a very, very nice bargain on him the last six years. Yeah, I know he said he would take less on his next deal to keep the band together, and here’s the thing: he still may do that.
• My prediction for his next AAV is $14.5 million. That is absolutely a fair number for him – and for the Avalanche – moving forward. That would make him the highest-paid player in the league for the coming year or two. But after that, some other player almost certainly will get more than that. For the Avalanche, that’s the cost of doing business.
• The sides aren’t very close right now on a new number. But I will truly eat my hat if somehow the Avalanche and MacKinnon don’t agree on a new deal by the next summer. There is just no way you can let a Nathan MacKinnon leave for nothing as a UFA in the summer of 2023.
• MacKinnon has to realize, too, that it’s a risk if he doesn’t agree to an extension before next summer. What if he tears up a knee in the season, before signing an extension? It could happen.
• I won’t be worried at all if MacKinnon doesn’t sign an extension before opening night. On the other hand, you don’t want this to get to next summer, if you’re the Avalanche. Weird things can happen. MacKinnon is a special case here. He’s got all the leverage, and he’ll get $14.5 million – and probably more – from some team by next summer if he’s still unsigned.