Aarif Deen
It felt for years like the Valeri Nichushkin saga would define Chris MacFarland’s era as Avalanche general manager.
But last Friday’s blockbuster trade changed everything. It’s been more than 30 years since a deal of this magnitude was made this late into an NHL season. And now the Mikko Rantanen trade will forever be linked to the Avs GM — whether the team has success or not.
It’s unfair to judge the trade in a vacuum. More moves are coming and they should be connected to this deal. Given his track record pre-2022 with finding talent on the market with cap flexibility, MacFarland has earned trust and patience.
He should be offered as much. Even if the microscope is on him as he executes his plan.
Here’s why.
It’s well-documented why the trade was made. The crux of the move is simple. Nathan MacKinnon makes $12.6 million — the third-highest AAV in the NHL next season. And generational defenseman Cale Makar is about 24 months away from likely eclipsing the $15 million mark.
Rantanen is arguably a top-10 talent in the NHL but he was the third-best player on the Avs. They couldn’t afford to pay him in the same ballpark as the other two superstars and expect to build a capable lineup around them.
The above can be true while also admitting that losing Rantanen is going to leave a giant 50-goal, 100-point hole in the lineup.
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But we can’t have it both ways. Everyone around this league has spent years pushing the narrative that you cannot win while paying all of your stars market value. You can’t believe that while also getting upset when a team finally makes a gutsy move like this and trades one of those guys.
All we’ve heard for years is that the Edmonton Oilers window is going to close once Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid lock up new deals. The Toronto Maple Leafs have been an example of how not to hand out big contracts to a handful of players at the top of the lineup and still expect to have the necessary depth.
This was the fate of the Avalanche if they paid Rantanen.
Instead, the team pulled the type of bold move often seen in the NFL. Is Rantanen still in his prime? Absolutely. But Colorado just got six years out of his last contract that are likely going to be better than the upcoming six seasons, let alone eight.
They rode this engine for 22, 23, or 24 minutes a night until 33 games before the end of his contract. He’s still a beast of a player. But like a luxury car, the wear and tear and mileage eventually add up.
This is the first time MacFarland is going to have cap space to go out and explore the market since being elevated to the GM role. He and Joe Sakic struck several moves out of the park the last time this happened. They found gems in Andre Burakovsky, Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin, and Artturi Lehkonen, to name a few.
They haven’t been offered that type of opportunity since winning the Stanley Cup.
READ MORE: Rantanen Traded, What’s Next? — Avalanche Trade Board 2.0
Nobody wants to say this next part out loud: You could argue that no team was more negatively affected by the flat salary cap than the Avalanche.
Why? Because as a player, having a Stanley Cup on your resume elevates what you’re paid. Just ask Jay Beagle or Nico Sturm, for example.
When Vegas won the Cup in 2023, the NHL had a $1 million bump in salary followed by $4.5 million in the two offseasons that followed.
The Florida Panthers went right into that $4.5 million bump and are ready to see at least a similar rise this offseason. But the more likely scenario is another bump of anywhere from $7 million to $9.4 million in cap space.
That type of growth allows you to re-sign talent — even if they’ve earned raises.
Tampa (like the other two teams) got to flex the no-state tax tool, granted they also lost a bunch of depth along the way. But they at least got to sign all their stars to long-term deals well under market value. Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Andrei Vasilevskiy are each making less than $10 million.
And the Avalanche? They won the Stanley Cup just as the league had two consecutive years of a $1 million bump. This is what MacFarland had to work with. He lost Nazem Kadri over what could’ve been resolved with an extra $3 million rise. J.T. Compher left and signed for only $1.1 million more than what the Avs gave his replacement, Ross Colton. You could even argue he would’ve taken a touch less than what the Red Wings paid him to stay.
But all of the guys who moved on earned raises because of their play in 2022. The tight budget didn’t allow MacFarland to keep those he worked hard to acquire and develop.
Colorado won the Stanley Cup when the salary cap was $81.5 million and was paying MacKinnon, Nichushkin, and Toews a combined $12.9 million — $300,000 more than what MacKinnon currently makes.
When the Avs were eliminated by Dallas last May, MacFarland said his targets in free agency would be budget players with low AAVs. He had zero flexibility. That was part of the reason why so many moves have tanked.
Calvin de Haan? He’s been fine. But an improvement would be nice. Erik Brannstrom? He didn’t even make it to the regular season opener. How about Ryan Johansen, who, when the Avs got him, were being applauded for the savvy move to bring in a player on a budget rather than analyzing his actual fit with the club. Each of these moves was made with budget as the top priority rather than fit.
The front office deserves trust. At least right now.
They finally have flexibility, they’ve recouped some assets, and they have an opportunity to go out and make the very same types of moves they made leading up to the night they were crowned champions.
READ MORE: Did Mikko Rantanen Force Chris MacFarland’s Hand?
As for Rantanen, his deal was always going to be tough to fit, even with the salary cap making a meteoric rise over the next handful of seasons.
The first year of MacKinnon’s big contract was 2023-24. When you combine his $12.6 million with Rantanen ($9.25 million), and Makar ($9 million), you come up with 37% of the $83.5 million salary cap that season.
This year, that percentage dropped to 35% before Rantanen was dealt.
If next season’s cap rose to $97 million, which is the high end of projections, and Rantanen was paid, for example, $13.4 million, the trio would be making a combined $35 million — which accounts for 36% of the cap. The following year, that percentage would drop a bit.
But then in 2026-27, even if the cap reaches $107 million, you have to account for Makar’s new contract. Let’s say he gets $15 million. Now you’ve got a combined $41 million in your top three stars, which would eat up 38% of the $107 million cap.
The moral of the story is, what we’ve seen from the Avs with struggling to add depth these last two years with MacKinnon making $12.6 million would’ve probably continued. The rising cap wasn’t going to give this team the kind of relief they needed.
We’ve seen what having three superstars and little depth looks like.
We’ve seen MacKinnon break franchise records and win a Hart Trophy.
We’ve seen him continue that this year and play at a pace where getting 100 assists isn’t out of the question.
We saw Rantanen break a franchise record with 55 goals in 2023 and then score seven goals in seven games in a first-round series loss to Seattle.
Makar has done nothing but get better and produce more offense than he did when he was dubbed M.V.P. of the Stanley Cup championship team with the Conn Smythe Trophy.
They broke records.
They elevated their game.
They drove the bus.
Yet all they have to show for it is one series win and a paltry 9-9 playoff record since that epic night in Tampa Bay.
Put all those things together, and it becomes a little bit easier to understand why the Rantanen trade had to happen — why this scenario made more sense than paying him $14 million.
We knew what we would’ve gotten with a Rantanen extension. We don’t know yet what we’re going to get with him shipped out the door.
Give the Avalanche front office your trust. Give MacFarland your patience. Let those next moves fall in line before deciding if he’s cut out to be the GM.
What he does next will determine his fate and define his tenure.