10 Observations: Avalanche Struggling to Find the Back of the Net on the Road Despite Chances

It was an impressive performance that passed the eye test for the Avalanche on Wednesday. But in the end, goals are still hard to come by on the road. That’s something Jared Bednar’s club will probably want to figure out before the playoffs.

The Toronto Maple Leafs were the beneficiary of a referee blunder, which led directly to the game-winning goal in a 2-1 victory over Colorado.

We’ll see if that can be carried into Ottawa on Thursday night. But first, an in-depth look at the second and final meeting between the Avs and Leafs this season.

Unless, you know.

10 Observations.

1. The biggest takeaway from a game like this one is a reminder of how coaching adjustments can change from game to game. With the playoffs around the corner, and Pete DeBoer and the Dallas Stars likely your first-round opponent, this is something that the Avs have to keep in mind.

On March 8, Colorado and Toronto played a speedy offensive game that the Avs won 7-4. But the Leafs learned that their dynamic superstars were no match for the Avs’ speed. Instead, they wanted to turn the rematch into a mostly low-event game. That was the case, and it worked. Sure, it took a deflection on the power play and a referee blunder on the penalty kill to score twice. But they still managed to hold the Avs to one goal.

2. Speaking of that first-round matchup, an Avalanche loss mixed with a Minnesota victory over Seattle means the Wild are just two points back of Colorado for third in the Central Division.

I still don’t think the spot is in jeopardy, at least not yet. Colorado has a stranglehold on each of the three tiebreakers so Minnesota would need to catch them and pass them. And given how well the Avs played, even in a loss, you can expect they’ll find a way to bounce back from that.

3. But hey, how many people in the organization would be upset to be in a wildcard spot? If you’re not getting home-ice advantage, why not avoid the Dallas and Winnipeg side of the bracket altogether? I don’t think it’ll happen, but it’s funny that it might be the more preferred scenario.

4. Valeri Nichushkin loves scoring against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Since joining the Avs, Nichushkin has had six goals in as many games against Toronto. He also scored his first-ever Avalanche goal in that same building in November 2019.

5. The trust in Erik Johnson continues to grow. His ice time was 15:48 — 20 seconds more than Sam Malinski. This is the first time in four games that he wasn’t last among ice time for blueliners (aside from Josh Manson getting injured early in the Calgary game).

This is by no means insinuating that Malinski isn’t playing well or shouldn’t be trusted. I thought he was spectacular against the Leafs. He works well with Ryan Lindgren — a much-deserved upgrade on all the guys he’s had to play with for most of the season.

6. Brock Nelson is as snakebit as I’ve seen from a recent Avalanche acquisition. He was robbed by Joseph Woll, who had a spectacular game in goal for Toronto. Nelson will get his soon. I think getting the first one will go a long way in him starting to produce offensively. He’s passed the eye test on most nights so far.

7. I’m forever amazed at Nathan MacKinnon figuring out the faceoff thing since Mikko Rantanen was dealt. He’s won 52.4 percent of draws in the 20 games since then. He’s also taking way more faceoffs than ever before.

Against the Leafs, MacKinnon took 27 draws. He’s had more than that five times in his career. The first four times were in 2016 or 2017. The fifth time was in 2022. He won 15 of the 27 against some of the most talented faceoff men in John Tavares and Auston Matthews. Granted, most of those wins came against Matthews. Tavares won 14 of 16 draws.

8. Mackenzie Blackwood has surrendered three goals on 49 shots over his last two starts and has zero wins to show for it. His last victory was the one against Toronto on March 8. That put him at 99 in his career.

9. Mikko Rantanen had eight points in his last 10 games with the Avalanche. Martin Necas has 18 points in 20 games since being acquired.

Basically, MacKinnon’s most common linemate (whether Rantanen or Necas), has 26 points over the past 30 games. MacKinnon has 40 points in that same stretch. Just another reason why he shouldn’t be overlooked in his pursuit of a second straight Hart Trophy.

If you’re wondering, Cale Makar has 31 points in the last 30 games.

10. Whether it’s MacKinnon, Makar, Necas, Nelson, Nichushkin, or someone else, the Avalanche do need to find a way to score more on the road. Colorado has 36 goals in the last 15 road games and has more than two goals in just six of those games. They have a 6-8-1 record in that stretch.

Meanwhile, at Ball Arena, the Avs have more than two goals in 12 of 15 games and have scored a whopping 60 times in that stretch. They have a 12-2-1 record and are riding a nine-game home winning streak.

Figuring out how to get some of that offensive flare on the road would go a long way.