MacKinnon’s MVP Bid vs. Makar’s Norris Pursuit — Who Has The Better Shot?

With the end of the regular season in sight, the NHL Awards voting is just around the corner.

For those unaware, the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association votes on the Hart, Norris, Calder, Lady Byng, and Selke Trophies, as well as the First, Second, and Rookie All-Star Teams. While voting privileges have not yet been communicated to selected writers, I’ve had the privilege of voting on them over each of the past three seasons. I’m guessing I’ll get another ballot this year, but that’s yet to be determined.

While I haven’t yet put serious thought into how my ballot will shake out, I’m assuming two Avalanche names will be part of my list: Nathan MacKinnon for the Hart Trophy, and Cale Makar for the Norris Trophy. Where on my list? I’m not sure. But both will be closer to the top than the bottom, that much I know for sure.

MacKinnon won the Hart Trophy in 2024, and Makar won the Norris Trophy in 2022. Who has a better shot at winning their second?

Let’s get into it.

Hart Trophy Race

MacKinnon won the league MVP last season after recording 140 points, which, surprisingly, wasn’t enough to win the Art Ross Trophy. Nikita Kucherov had 144.

This year, MacKinnon again has a shot to win the Art Ross. He leads the NHL with 115 points with four games remaining, and Kucherov is three back, although he and the Tampa Bay Lightning have six games left. If MacKinnon wins the Art Ross, it’ll certainly help his case.

But two other superstars are also having great seasons.

First, Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers. Draisaitl leads the league with 52 goals — eight more than second place, despite missing a handful of games. He’s also been far and away Edmonton’s best player, given the tough year (for his standard) that Connor McDavid has had. The Oilers captain is currently injured and hasn’t been as dominant as in years past.

The wording of the Hart Trophy makes that matter. Not only is Draisaitl playing out of his mind, but he’s doing it without McDavid at his best. Meanwhile, MacKinnon has Makar, who is breaking records seemingly every night. (I still think they need to change the verbiage of this award.)

MacKinnon and Draisaitl are not the betting favorites. That currently goes to Winnipeg goalie Connor Hellebuyck.

Coming off a Vezina Trophy in 2024, Hellebuyck managed to elevate his game to greater heights. The separation between him and the rest of the league’s netminders is quite impressive. He’s currently listed at -135 odds in most Sportsbooks.

This is probably the year a goalie wins it. And it would be well deserved. But I do think the rest of the Jets roster has been somewhat disrespected. Hellebuyck is far and away the Jets’ MVP. There’s no doubt about that. But he’s not doing it alone — at least not as much as most people are making it seem like.

Kyle Connor is currently tied with Makar for seventh in league scoring with 91 points. He’s two off his career high and has a chance at cracking 100 for the first time. His 38 goals are also tied for seventh with his linemate Mark Scheifele. The Jets’ top centerman has 38 goals and 83 points, one off his career best.

The two of them, along with Gabe Vilardi, are arguably the best line in the NHL this season.

Norris Trophy Race

Makar scored his 30th goal on Thursday in Columbus, becoming the first defenseman to reach the mark in 16 years. He also had two assists to reach 60. He’s the first blueliner since 1989 to record 30 goals and 60 assists in the same season. As previously mentioned, his 91 points are tied for seventh in the NHL, and he’s also got some pretty great defensive metrics.

Not bad, right?

His two most likely challengers are Zach Werenski and Quinn Hughes.

I won’t get into Hughes’ season all that much because injuries have likely ruined his shot to win the thing. But Werenski’s year has been incredible. The Blue Jackets’ top defenseman has 74 points in as many games, blowing past his career numbers in assists and points, and matching (so far) his career best in goals.

Werenski is the only player in the league who plays more than Makar, averaging 27:01 per game. He’s also grown as a leader in a locker room that needed it more than anyone else. The Blue Jackets’ playoff hopes are still alive, albeit they’re currently on the outside after suffering 7-3 and 5-0 losses to Colorado and Toronto in their last two games.

It doesn’t help Werenski’s case that Columbus is 3-6-1 in its last 10, and he has just five assists and a minus-3 rating in that stretch. Werenski has been held off the scoresheet in seven of those games, including the last two.

The Verdict

I’m not saying MacKinnon can’t or won’t win the Hart, but Makar for Norris is a no-brainer this year. It would be a lot tougher to call if Hughes didn’t get injured, but missing 14 games is a lot to overcome for Vancouver’s captain. Especially when Makar has dressed in all 78 for the Avs and reached milestones that haven’t been achieved in decades while playing a strong two-way game.

MacKinnon has 13 points in his last 13 games after recording 15 in six games right before that. Had his production not slowed down, he’d have a stronger hold of the Art Ross, and that would help his case quite a bit. I still think he can win the Hart, but I do believe he’ll need to at least lead the league in points to have a chance. Maybe he’s got one more big offensive night in him.

What say you?