Avalanche Mailbag 2.0: Revisiting the Mikko Rantanen Saga

So, full disclosure, I wrote this entire article and scheduled it to be published Thursday morning while I was watching the Leafs and Panthers game. Game 1 between the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets had not yet started. As it turns out, Mikko Rantanen’s insane white-hot streak continued.

He recorded a hat trick for the second consecutive game and broke an NHL record by factoring in on 12 consecutive goals for his team — a streak that is still active and could be extended in Game 2. Rantanen, as of right now, is the early (very early) favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy.

I just thought it was fascinating to see him continue to build on what he did in Games 5-7 against the Avs while this was already scheduled to be posted. I can’t imagine Chris MacFarland is having fun watching this. I truly do wonder what’s going through Nathan MacKinnon’s head every time he sees his guy score goals at this epic pace.

Anyway, let’s get to what I had written before the game.

Understandably so, several of the mailbag questions were about Rantanen and his role in the Avalanche’s first-round elimination.

The Avs are probably going to see a lot of Rantanen in the postseason over the next eight years. I don’t think we’ll rehash the trade every single time, but given how Rantanen was dealt to Carolina and eliminated the Avs 99 days later with Dallas, I could see why many are still asking about him.

In the second edition of the post-playoff mailbag, I’m answering all questions related to Rantanen and the year that was for the superstar and his saga with the Avalanche.

Read More: Avalanche Mailbag 1.0: Coaching, Management, & What Went Wrong in the Playoffs?

Question from George

Why do you think the Avs chose to blindside Mikko and not tell him first that they would trade him?

Aarif’s Response

I think the easiest way to answer this is to look at how he performed in Carolina. If Rantanen knew the Avs were trying to trade him, it probably would’ve affected his on-ice performance before a deal was made. Granted, he only had four assists in the six-game homestand right before he was dealt, so he wasn’t playing all that great anyway.

More importantly, it would’ve angered his agent and probably led to public comments that would’ve made any trade hard to get to the finish line. Especially for the assets Colorado received. Rantanen didn’t want to leave and if he knew this was coming before it did, his agent would’ve backed him and publicly scolded the Avs for not negotiating. It would’ve been a mess.

Still, I  just don’t think it was the right move. There are layers to this and it’s why I wrote what I wrote last weekend about Chris MacFarland’s job. Trading Rantanen is a decision. There are reasons why it was made. And I get that. I agreed with it at the time and still understand why they felt they needed to do it. Even if I don’t entirely agree anymore.

But dealing him and making it a surprise blew up in the Avs’ face. Joe Sakic said on Tuesday that he and MacFarland found out that Rantanen wasn’t going to sign in Carolina the same time as all of us. That, too, is a problem.

I know they traded him in January because Carolina was contemplating dealing Martin Necas to Vancouver in a separate deal, and the Avs didn’t want to lose out on that player. But, if you’re not going to sign Rantanen, and you’re not going to work with him to pick a team in the East and sign there longterm, then you should’ve at least traded him much closer to the deadline — even if it were a surprise — so he doesn’t end up in Dallas in the same season.

Call it hindsight if you want. But they should’ve planned for these scenarios. If not, it just means they didn’t value Rantanen as the level of superstar that deserves the respect to have these scenarios planned for.

And by all accounts, that seems to be the case. I don’t believe that they only traded him because he’s a third superstar they can’t afford. I think they’re banking on him not being worth his new contract. Which might be the case in a few years (if at all). But that’s still an epic failure of a mindset to have in the prime of his career when you’re trying to win another Stanley Cup. It’s win now, isn’t it?

Question from Steve

Could MacFarland really have put a stipulation in the Rantanen trade that Carolina couldn’t trade Rantanen to a Western Conference team? I see that mentioned a lot, but was that truly an option?

Aarif’s Response

I don’t believe that’s something he could’ve done. But like I said, the best solution to this would’ve been trading him closer to March 7, to not give the second team much time to deal him again. It took Carolina about two-ish weeks before they realized that Rantanen wasn’t working there and wasn’t going to sign.

If the Avs traded him closer to deadline day, he would’ve at least been there for this postseason, which means you’re not facing him for at least this season with the Dallas Stars.

Could Rantanen have just walked on July 1 and signed with Dallas then? Yes. But it still eliminates him from this year’s first round, which would’ve given the Avs a much better shot at getting to the second round and beyond.

Question from Jeffrey Anderson

Did Mikko’s agent get too greedy and play hardball with CMac for Leon Draisaitl money? Did CMac not want to pay Mikko because of cap space, and he was our third-best superstar and he also wanted to get a return for him before Mikko left as a free agent? Maybe nobody knows what really happened?

Aarif’s Response

This is all pretty much confirmed at this point. Sakic said he knows where they were and where the agent was in negotiations at the time of the trade. MacFarland has been clear about needing to pay Cale Makar and having depth rather than paying three superstars.

But it doesn’t change the fact that the difference in their negotiations could’ve been made up over time. The agent is difficult and proved this in the 2019 negotiation. But you’re not signing the agent, you’re signing the player. You work through this stuff.

I know Nathan MacKinnon signed a full season out. So did Cale Makar. But it doesn’t always work that way.

Gabe Landeskog waited until literally the last minute before free agency before signing. Nobody ever calls him selfish for waiting until the end to get way more money than the Avs probably wanted to offer. Why is Rantanen any different for taking the same approach?

Historically, superstar players, if they’re not getting the offer they want, don’t sign in October or January. They sign closer to the trade deadline or July 1 as the two sides work on closing the gap. Especially when the player wants to stay and the team wants him to stay. But, hey, maybe they didn’t want him.

It also rubs me the wrong way that Rantanen walked into MacFarland’s office two days before the trade and told the GM that he wanted to stay and was flexible. And then he was traded 48 hours later.

Before Rantanen ever publicly shared that story, it was reported by Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos. People knew about this before Rantanen spoke to the media. So we can’t necessarily say Rantanen made it up.

Anyway, it’s all in the past. I don’t think the Avs are out of their Stanley Cup window by any means. They can win another Cup and probably beat Rantanen’s Dallas Stars on the way to it.

Question from Christopher

If you had been MacFarland, how much money would you have given to Rantanen?

Aarif’s Response

Eight years, $96 million. That was what I predicted he’d get back in 2023 when MacKinnon’s deal kicked in. That was what I still felt he’d end up with last fall after Draisaitl’s deal. And that was what he signed for in Dallas.

I know a lot happened for him and his agent to accept that number with the Stars. And the no-tax thing certainly helps. But I still believe they would’ve closed the gap in negotiations closer to the trade deadline or in June. The front office didn’t give this enough time to play out. Negotiations like this aren’t supposed to be easy.

No matter how hard a bargain the agent was driving, Rantanen didn’t want to leave. He would’ve stepped in and made sure that didn’t happen. The Avs didn’t give him a chance to get to that point, which means they didn’t value him enough to keep chugging along until that point.