Adrian Dater
Judging by my mentions and inbox, Avalanche fans are not at all through the seven stages of grief yet, over last night’s epic meltdown in Game 5. Everybody is still stuck on the “anger” part it would seem. Hey, I don’t blame you.
I had one of those moments when I woke up today where I actually thought I had I dreamed that collapse, that unbelievable loss to St. Louis. I was like, “Wait, that didn’t really happen. Did it???” It remains just unfathomable to me and most every one of you that the Avs really did blow that game. Especially, given how this team has talked so much about learning from the past, learning how to win, learning never to let up. Yadda. Yadda. Yadda. You’re in your own building with a roaring crowd. You’re up 3-0 late in the second period against a team missing its top goalie, arguably its best defenseman, a team that was 2-12 to you at that point against you all-time in playoff series competitions, with a chance to finally get this second-round-exit gorilla off your back and….you lose the damn game?????
I think a lot of Avs fans today are feeling like those in a bad relationship that we’ve all had at some point, where you keep hearing “I’ve changed, I’ve changed, I’ve changed, things will be different this time, promise!” and then, boom, they go right back to their old selves again. Of course, this isn’t that serious. It’s just a game. But that’s how a lot of fans seem to feel today. Just deep, deep disappointment in the team for letting that happen last night. Everybody just sooooo wants to buy in and let loose with wild cheers for this team. But they couldn’t close out a game in which the odds of not doing so were sky high.
You lose the 3-0 lead, but get the lead back with 2:45 left after one of the greatest goals scored in NHL playoff history – and then you give the goal right back after making some unbelievably bad plays with the puck, any one of which might have salted the game away had things just been done right at a basic, fundamental level?
I believe the odds, at one point when it was 3-0, were +5000 for the Blues. A $100 wager on them at that moment would have returned $5,100 (your $100 stake back, plus $5000). Somehow, the Avs defied all odds and lost the hockey game. Defeat pulled from the jaws of victory.
We’ve done our game coverage from last night and listed some of the main reasons why they did lose, starting with Darcy Kuemper’s, um, not very good goaltending. His save percentage right now is .904 – well down from his .921 of the regular season. Only the .884 of Blues goalie Ville Husso is lower, of any goalie remaining in the playoffs.
The pressure is really, really on Kuemper now. He has to prove he can win one of the next games they have upcoming, whether it’s one or two, against the Blues. Some people have suggested the Avs go with Pavel Francouz for Game 6 and. … no. That’s not going to happen, Jared Bednar said, nor should it happen. It’s sink-or-swim with Kuemper now. That’s it. Putting a rusty Frankie in goal just isn’t the answer. Kuemper has the opportunity to atone, and he should get it.
And that’s still the thing: the Avs have two more opportunities to close this thing out. When they had that epic collapse in Game 7, 2014 against the Wild, the season was done. When they cost themselves a tying third-period goal because of offsides, San Jose Game 7, 2019, the season was done. When they blew a 4-3 lead with 3:43 left in Game 7 against Dallas, 2020, the season was done. When they choked away that game last night, the season wasn’t done at least.
But, wow, if the Avs really want these questions about their ability to handle pressure in games, and in series, to go away, they just aren’t forcing people to shut up about it. They keep doing it. Frankly, I think this thing is going seven now. I don’t like the Avs’ chances in Game 6 tomorrow night in St. Louis. I think the Blues are going to be really fired up.
I think it’s going to come down to an all-or-nothing, one-game showdown Sunday night at Ball Arena, and I would like the Avs’ chances for that one actually. Home teams win something like 75% of Game 7s in the playoffs (I haven’t seen the latest stats on that, but think it’s close).
The fact that it might have to go that far remains just mind-boggling. If ever a team looked done, it was the Blues late in the second period last night. But when you start playing dump-and-change hockey, start playing kill-the-clock hockey, you set yourself up for bad things to happen. It’s the old “prevent defenses do one thing: they prevent you from winning” thing, to me anyway. Yeah, I know the stats show that getting conservative with a lead usually leads to a win in hockey, but that’s not the way the Avs play best. They play best when they keep attacking. Not necessarily offensively, but attacking the puck. Too often last night, I saw the Avs just dump the puck in, then go off for casual line changes where there wasn’t enough of a forecheck. The Blues were able to skate the puck out of their zone pretty easily. the Avs just sat back too much and tried to start checking in the neutral zone – not in the Blues’ end. That was a tactical mistake that can’t happen with this team. Jared Bednar should have known that better. Safe is death with this team, it always seems like.
About Game 6: I think the Avs should put Andre Burakovsky back in the lineup. Take Alex Newhook out. Or, take J.T. Compher out maybe even. Compher has zero goals and two assists in nine playoff games so far. Give him a shakeup too maybe, just like Burakovsky got. He’s also just 42% in the faceoff dot. Not good enough. Avs are getting killed again on draws. It hurt them a lot in the final minutes last night.
Frankly, I’d put Nico Sturm back in too. I want more size and speed in the lineup for this game on the road, and a better defensive player and faceoff guy. Not to mention, a better penalty killer. Time to give either Andrew Cogliano or Darren Helm a night off in his place. Or, maybe, NAK, who I haven’t noticed much this series.
Burakovsky has usually played well in response to previous demotions. The guy had 61 points in 80 games this season, a plus-18. Put him back in the lineup in a game where another good stick could make all the difference.
What else can be said, folks? The Avs put themselves in this situation, and now we’ll all see if they have what it takes to get themselves out of it.
Or, as I said last night, it’s going to be the longest summer of their lives.