Scott MacDonald
A decade in Denver. That’s how long Erik Johnson has spent in an Avalanche uniform. That’s a longer tenure than anyone can claim in Colorado’s locker room. He’s survived three coaches, two general managers, the worst season in modern NHL history, the triumphant season that followed — the highs, the lows and everything in between. He’s become the elder statesman in the P̶e̶p̶s̶i̶ ̶C̶e̶n̶t̶e̶r̶ Ball Arena locker room, a man who dons the Burgundy and Blue proudly, and does it with stoicism and dignity.
But like any great story, you turn the pages. No matter what, at some point, you’ll always reach that back cover.
Math, numbers and arithmetic are one of the many things that distinguish humans from other sentient beings. It’s what’s propelled science, medicine, travel, etc. to its current state. It makes — and can break — humanity. And in sports, like everything else, numbers are supremely relevant. For players, it’s statistics and the numbers on a paycheck. For general managers, well, it’s really not all that different. And with it also comes balancing the checkbook, managing cap space and ensuring the team is financially functional in the future.
And herein lies the problem for Erik Johnson.
When assessing the forthcoming cap situation that Avs GM Joe Sakic must consider next offseason, the numbers — not at all helped out by the projected flat salary cap of $81.5 million — are going to be very close.
Very, very close.
By my count, the Avs will have seven forwards, four defenseman and a goaltender that are signed through the 2021-22 season. Those 12 contracted players add up to about $55.11 million of used-up Avalanche cap space. Joe and Co. will need at least eight more players signed on to meet the minimum requirements of an NHL team. A few of them are no-brainers.
Rookie phenom and Calder Trophy-winner Cale Makar will no doubt demand a healthy long-term, eight-year max extension. That figures to take $8-9 million off the books. Makar deserves — and will get — a contract that will surely land him in the top-five richest NHL defensemen list.
And then there’s captain Gabe Landeskog. Sakic told the media recently that he, Landeskog and his agent began preliminary discussions on a contract extension while the team was in the Edmonton bubble for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Saying, “We’d like to have something done during the year, but if it has to go through the year, we’re confident we have a pretty good relationship with Gabe and that we’ll be able to figure something out by next year.”
While he won’t command Makar money, Landeskog will certainly garner captain’s cash, so to speak. I’d expect him to make something like $6.5-7 per year.
Quick math will tell you that Makar and Landeskog alone will take something like $14-16 million off the Avs accountant’s book. That leaves roughly $11-12 million in cap space remaining with at least six players to sign.
If you say au revoir to P-E Bellemare, goodbye to guys like Matt Calvert and Ian Cole and auf wiedersehen to Philipp Grubauer, sure, you’re saving a little cash. But who fills the gaps? Do you re-sign any of them? Will Brandon Saad earn a new contract after next season?
It’s also worth considering Sakic can save some money by filling a few roster holes with cheap entry-level contracts. Bowen Byram comes to mind, as does Martin Kaut and Logan O’Connor. Conor Timmins, by the way, will also need a new contract after this upcoming season.
Say Byram, Kaut and O’Connor do step in. That’s a conservative and affordable $2.5 million. Now you have, say, $9 million leftover and 17 players signed. You need a top-six winger (or, again I ask, do you re-sign Saad?). You also need a de facto starting goaltender (or do you trust Pavel Francouz as your starter and go for a lesser back-up netminder?). Let’s say $4-6 million for a top-six and $3-5 for a goaltender…if we average those two contracts out, there’s your remaining $9 million off the books and the Avs are still one contract under the league minimum.
Of course, with the Seattle Expansion Draft looming on the horizon of next offseason, that’ll take another contract off of Colorado’s desk. However, that won’t figure to save that much money (maybe upwards of $4 million saved?). Not enough anyway.
It’s becoming increasingly clear the Avs will need to deal or buyout one of their larger contracts. When you look at the 2021-22 Avalanche roster, a prime candidate for something like that is Erik Johnson.
Colorado is stacked up and down the system with defensemen. With Sam Girard, Ryan Graves, Devon Toews and eventually Makar all signed longer term — and kids like Byram and Timmins knocking at the door — there’s a new generation of young, two-way talent on the backend. Of that list, Erik Johnson sticks out like Steve Buscemi’s character from that scene in 30 Rock (“How do you do fellow kids?”).
What I’m trying to say is that it’s a dog-eat-dog world in the National Hockey League, and the spry pups are nipping at the heels of the aging hounds.
It’s not fair. But such is life. It just makes sense. For Erik Johnson, the writing’s on the wall…underlined and in all caps. It just might be time to send our old friend out to pasture. Take your victory lap, EJ.