Exclusive: Nathan MacKinnon Seeking To Be NHL’s Highest-Paid Player (+)

Nathan MacKinnon still has one year left on his contract, with a $6.3 million salary cap hit to the Colorado Avalanche – making him one of the biggest bargains in pro sports right now. But to retain the services of MacKinnon on his next contract is going to cost a LOT more.

But just how much? NHL sources tell Colorado Hockey Now that the MacKinnon camp is expecting the star center to become the highest-paid player in the league on his next contract, which is currently under negotiation. Right now, the NHL player with the biggest cap hit is Edmonton’s Connor McDavid, at $12.5 million. MacKinnon’s next deal likely would come with a cap hit of at least $13 million – and quite likely more.

When looking at the landscape, it’s easy to agree that MacKinnon’s next deal should set a record as the biggest in NHL history. He’s a Stanley Cup champion, still just 26 and a player who not only wins games on the ice, but sells a lot of tickets because of his star power.

The NHL salary this coming season will have only gone up $1 million, to $82.5 million. But, if all things stay equal, the cap should go up substantially after the 2022-23 season – which creates a new market that by then needs to be taken into account for players of MacKinnon’s status as an unrestricted free agent after this season.

If the Avalanche want to get the best AAV deal they can get on MacKinnon, it may make sense to just get that now.  Otherwise, it risks MacKinnon becoming disillusioned and playing out his contract and going to the highest bidder in the summer of 2023. By then, MacKinnon could realistically ask for $15 million or $16 million per year – and almost certainly get it from someone.

I would say there is practically zero chance the Avalanche don’t re-sign MacKinnon. I mean, they’re going to give in eventually. I think the biggest question is how much of a hometown discount might MacKinnon actually give.

But you never, ever, ever lose a player like a Nathan MacKinnon for nothing, over relative peanuts. Re-signing a guy like him needs to fairly account what the player has delivered to this point, but what his future value is worth.

Honestly, MacKinnon could ask for the absolute max and I don’t see how the Avalanche could turn that down. By the way, the maximum amount of years MacKinnon can re-sign for is eight. So, I can easily see his next contract being eight years, $112 million.

Of course, the Avalanche can always say, “OK, but if you suffer a career-ending injury in one year, we’re still on the hook for seven years.”

And that’s where players will usually accept a compromise, as the only thing truly guaranteed in a contract are the salaries, per year.

The Avalanche have not been able to negotiate an extension on MacKinnon’s current contract, until shortly after winning the Stanley Cup. They can sign any current player to a maximum of eight years, while for any other NHL team the maximum would be seven years.

Keep also in mind: Kroenke Sports and Entertainment are paying Nikola Jokic an annual salary of $46.55 million. That’s 100% attributable to NBA owners getting a lot more TV money than the NHL. But who actually sells more tickets in Denver: MacKinnon or Jokic? The Denver Nuggets have never made the NBA finals. MacKinnon is a Stanley Cup winner, who absolutely has as much name recognition in town as the Joker. Avalanche TV ratings locally are much better than those of the Nuggets.

These are the kinds of things MacKinnon’s management team are well aware of. While the lazy American sports media still chooses to mostly only talk about football and basketball, the actual numbers show basketball, at least, are only a national sell – but not much of a local sell. Most of that is attributed to better marketing to the youngest demographics. But things are starting to change, with bigger and starrier personalities such as MacKinnon.

That’s one of the biggest reasons for optimism at the highest levels of NHL marketing. NHL players, research is showing, are gaining a bigger footprint with the lucrative American youth market. The NBA still has many built-in advantages in the US – the weather, plus the economics of youth per-capita cost, more TV exposure – but the NHL has made inroads overall.

Whatever the future numbers actually are: Nathan MacKinnon figures to get the biggest chunk he can get. And, he’d be worth it.