Flynn’s Take: State of the Avs Midseason Report (+)

It’s just past the midway point of the 2024-25 season and everyone’s creating their own breakdown of the Avalanche’s first half. Here’s my take and what the Avs said about the 41 games they have played.

If fans and analysts focus solely on the Avalanche’s statistics from Game 1 through Game 41, they might reasonably conclude the team was inconsistent. While this assessment holds some truth, it overlooks the underlying factors that contributed to the team’s fluctuations in performance.

What Changed for Avs Improvement

Let’s rewind, shall we? Colorado was without three top forwards at the start of the season and had a rotation of injuries in and out of the lineup. They have had 10 guys play their first NHL game and completely overhauled their goaltending. As head coach Jared Bednar has said about the team in the past — it’s a work in progress.

10 Observations: Capping off a Successful First Month With Mackenzie Blackwood

The goaltending change significantly impacted the team, but Bednar doesn’t credit that as the pivotal move.

“It’s just a constant grind and striving to improve so teams, like every team, is just getting a little bit better as the season goes on, getting more dialed into what we need to do,” Bednar said. “The consistency side of it, just figuring out exactly what it takes this team to win.”

The key word from Bednar is consistency — something the Avs have struggled with all season. But it’s difficult to find that when different players are in the lineup nearly every other game. We’ll get to that later.

The team has turned around in the last month or so stringing together more wins and playing a more consistent game. Mikko Rantanen said goaltending played a part, but it’s been about playing to their strengths regularly.

“I think we’re trending the right direction as a team. Since December 1, we’ve been pretty good …,” Rantanen said. “We’re doing good job defending and we don’t give up as much. I feel like that we did maybe earlier in the year. Offense is still there, so we just gotta keep going.”

Ever-changing Lineup

Back to the change of personnel throughout the first 41 games. To give you an idea of how different the lineup has varied, here’s the list of opening night forwards:

Jonathan Drouin
Nathan MacKinnon
Mikko Rantanen
Ross Colton
Casey Mittelstadt
Joel Kiviranta
Miles Wood
Parker Kelly
Logan O’Connor
Calum Ritchie
Ivan Ivan
Nikolai Kovalenko

Eight of those 12 are in the current lineup with two having missed significant time due to injury.

Injury/trade timeline

• Oct. 9: Drouin suffers upper-body injury
• Oct. 28: Colton suffers broken foot
• Oct. 28: Wood suffers lower-body injury
• Nov. 5: Artturi Lehkonen returns from offseason shoulder surgery
• Nov. 15: Wood returns from injury, Drouin returns from injury, Valeri Nichushkin returns from six-month suspension
• Nov. 23: Drouin suffers upper-body injury
• Nov. 27: Wood suffers lower-body injury
• Nov. 30: Avs trade Justus Annunen for Scott Wedgewood
• Dec. 7: Colton returns from injury
• Dec. 9: Avs trade Alexandar Georgiev and Nikolai Kovalenko for Mackenzie Blackwood and Givani Smith
• Ivan Ivan suffers upper-body injury
• Dec. 28: Avs trade Ondrej Pavel for Juuso Parssinen
• Dec. 31: Drouin returns from injury
• Dec. 31: Nichushkin suffers lower-body injury

Colorado has had a rotation of defensemen too. Cale Makar, Sam Malinski and Sam Girard did not miss a game in the first half, but Josh Manson (12) and Devon Toews (4) missed games due to injury.

Of note, Mittelstadt started the season on a roll but struggled in an extensive scoring drought and has been sporadic since getting back on the board. His contribution, and lack thereof, is impactful to the team.

Breaking Down Avs in 10-Game Segments

Bednar and his staff analyze the team’s success and failure in 10-game segments. It allows them to pinpoint mistakes and make changes or learn what is working to keep that chemistry thriving.

SEGMENT 1 (Oct. 9 – 28): Record = 5-5-0, lost first four, won next five; one back-to-back; six home, four away
Notes: Drouin was injured in the first game; Lehkonen and Nichushkin were out of the lineup; Georgiev and Annunen tandem struggled
SEGMENT 2 (Oct. 30 – Nov. 21): Record = 6-4-0, won three consecutive; most time off between games was two days; six home, four away
Notes: Colton and Wood out; Lehkonen returned on Nov. 5; Drouin, Nichushkin and Wood returned on Nov. 15; Georgiev won four, Annunen won two
SEGMENT 3 (Nov. 23 – Dec. 10): Record = 6-4-0, won three consecutive games; two back-to-backs; two home, eight away
Notes: Drouin and Wood out; Annunen traded for Wedgewood; Colton returned on Dec. 7; Wedgewood relieves Georgiev in 5-4 comeback win over Buffalo Sabres on Dec. 3, suffers first loss to Carolina Hurricanes; Georgiev traded for Blackwood
SEGMENT 4 (Dec. 12 – Jan. 4): Record = 7-2-1, season-high consecutive wins (six); one back-to-back; longest time off (holiday break) between games; six home, four away
Notes: Parssinen joins team; Drouin returned Dec. 31; Wedgewood’s second loss; Blackwood’s first regulation loss; Ivan injured on Dec. 27; Nichushkin injured on Dec. 31

The Goaltending Effect

It’s no secret the team’s struggles had a lot to do with a lack of solid goaltending. From Game 1 through Game 25 when Georgiev and Annunen were between the pipes, the Avs record was 13-12-0. Two wins were earned in overtime and one in a shootout.

After dealing Annunen for Wedgewood, the team won four and lost one — Wedgewood had three Ws and Georgiev had one. Since Blackwood’s first start on Dec. 14 through Jan. 6 (midway point), Colorado’s record is 8-1-1.

“Blackys (Blackwood) played really well. You can’t deny it if you just look at his numbers and big saves … would say that was a change for us. He’s been really good.

“We play against the best players in the world every night and they’re gonna get some chances. There’s not a game you don’t give up any chances. So then you need your goalie to try to help sometimes on those and maybe steal us a game,” Rantanen said.

Will Avalanche Be Whole at Some Point this Season?

The closest the Avs have been to fully healthy was the New Year’s Eve 5-2 win over the Winnipeg Jets. The top seven forwards were in the lineup and all three defensive pairs were good to go.

In true Avalanche fashion this season, the team welcomed back Drouin and lost Nichushkin to injury in that game.

“Shouldn’t surprise me at this point. I mean, it sucks because we talked about just trying to get deeper through our lineup,” Bednar said after the win on Dec. 31. “I feel like the guys that are playing are giving us everything they got but we just constantly have, that’ll push us back up to four guys out again. And it’s not, it’s just not easy. Makes your job that much more difficult.”

Of course, I left out Gabriel Landeskog but that’s because, well you all know why. The captain has missed the last two seasons and there is no timeline for his return, although it is expected sometime this season.

The team is poised to continue improving and developing greater consistency, provided they can avoid major injuries. Confidence will organically grow with steady, reliable goaltending as the foundation.