Data Shows MacKinnon’s Big Contract Might Actually Be A Bargain

For a few years, Nathan MacKinnon was playing on what many considered to be the best contract in the NHL. Back in 2016, before he had broken out and become the player that he is today, the Colorado Avalanche superstar signed a seven year contract with a $6.3 million cap hit. Two years into that contract, he became a Hart Trophy finalist and towards the end of that deal, a Stanley Cup champion.

After winning the Cup, he signed a massive 8 year, $100.8 million contract extension, which made him the highest paid player in the league (for one season). The days of the bargain contract were over…or so we thought.

According to The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, MacKinnon might still be on one of the better contracts in the NHL. His data shows that, despite having a cap hit of $12.6 million each season, the numbers that MacKinnon has been putting up actually show that he’s worth significantly more.

“In 2022-23, MacKinnon upped the ante significantly, scoring at a 128-point pace. The following year, he trumped that further with an incredible MVP performance, scoring 140 points,” Luszczyszyn wrote. “That puts his estimated value between $16 million and $17 million — or 19 percent of the cap. MacKinnon, at his current level, is a near-max salary player (20 percent).”

The 28 year old is on the record as stating that he believes the primes of NHL careers will last much longer because of how well athletes treat their bodies these days. He is obviously someone who takes care of himself and takes his diet very seriously. Still, like every NHL player, his value will start to decline at some point. That doesn’t mean it’ll be a bad contract anytime soon, though.

“At age 28, MacKinnon’s value is expected to decline over the remaining seven years of his contract — but he’s so good right now that his decline is superseded by expected cap growth,” Luszczyszyn said.

MacKinnon is no longer the highest paid player in the league, as Auston Matthews signed a contract with a higher AAV. He’ll continue to fall down the list as guys like Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid sign new extensions, but so far, the Avalanche star has proven to be worthy of the big deal he signed.