The very, very difficult Avalanche roster choices awaiting Jared Bednar

On this, day 8,932 of the hockey shutdown – or so it has seemed to me – I looked over the current Avalanche roster again and I just see some very tough choices Jared Bednar and his staff will have to make when it comes to who plays and who sits among the forward group for the NHL playoffs. (Standard disclaimer: if there is a playoff).

We’ve talked about this some before, but as the time of formal training camp (July 10) gets closer, I wanted to do some minor free-association, off-the-top-of-my-head discussion with myself about who will be among the top 12 forwards when/if the playoffs start.

Here is the current Avalanche roster of forwards, as listed on their website. It is presumed they are all healthy:

Gabe Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri, Joonas Donskoi, Vladislav Namestnikov, Valeri Nichushkin, J.T. Compher, Tyson Jost, Matt Calvert, Matt Nieto, Vladislav Kamenev, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Colin Wilson.

That’s 15 guys for 12 spots. Although I have not been told that Colin Wilson is “active” again as a player, I also have not been told that he isn’t (I’ve asked). So, for the purposes of this column, I’m gonna count him as among the 15 healthy, available forwards.

At first blush, Wilson and Kamenev probably would be among the leaders in the clubhouse to be scratches for the start of the playoffs on the Avalanche roster. Before the shutdown, Kamenev had played 38 games, with one goal and eight points. Wilson’s last game played for the Avs was Oct. 26, against Anaheim. He played nine games before needing hip surgery.

Thing is, Wilson had a job in the top 12 before the injuries, and he has been a pretty good playoff performer in his career – including a four-goal, eight-point contribution to the Avs in 12 games of last year’s postseason. What if he looks great in training camp? Does Bednar go with him because of some pretty sizable playoff experience (65 games)? OK, but if he plays, who sits because of that? Namestnikov? I would doubt that, considering the Avs went out of their way to get him at the trade deadline, and he’s got his own history of some strong playoff success (with Tampa Bay).

Would Nieto be an odd-man out? He might, given his relatively light-scoring nature. But what about the PK? He played more than 164 minutes in short-handed situations for Bednar this season. Namestnikov was brought here partially for his strong short-handed play, so I would expect that might give Bednar more of a justifiable excuse to sit Nieto. But I’ve gotten to like Neetsy more as a player since he’s been here. He’s a good forechecker and stronger on the boards than people realize. He’s got some pretty extensive playoff experience, too.

You can’t scratch Bellemare, because he is your reliable fourth-line center who also is good on faceoffs, and he had a very good season I thought. Do we dare go into the “Could Tyson Jost be an odd-man out?” conversation? I mean, it’s possible, right? He had eight goals and 23 points in 67 games. He looked lost again at times, yet he was playing better at the time of the shutdown. We all know he has talent, and in the playoffs, I’m always of the belief that you want as many potential goal-scorers as you can realistically have. Yet, the numbers are the numbers: eight goals in 67 games.

You’re definitely not going to sit Matt Calvert. He’s a great utility player, and a leader in the room. The Avs really, really missed his presence in Game 7 against the Sharks in the second round last year. You’re certainly not going to sit Nichushkin after the year he had.

I guess the bottom line is: there are going to be some real battles in training camp. Guys are going to be fighting each other to prove they deserve to be among Bednar’s 12 forwards for the starting Avalanche roster. Odds are that Wilson and Kamenev will draw short straws, but Bednar is someone who rewards players for how hard they work/practice and perform. If Wilson knocks his socks off (assuming he is healthy), Bednar is the type of coach who will reward that and not just go with some predetermined “safe” mindset.

To me, too, this is why I think the Avs will be a tough team to beat in the playoffs. They have guys who really will want to play. The guys who are among the top 12 will know there are eager, hungry guys ready to take their place if given the chance. That’ll keep them on their toes, keep complacency at bay.

It should be an interesting camp.